Market focus this week shifts from consumer inflation (CPI) data to a much busier agenda: July PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the second estimate of Q2 2026 GDP, Consumer Confidence, and the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will serve as the debut stage for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. At the same time, tech giants like Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike are scheduled to report earnings on the same day as the PCE and GDP releases, making Wednesday, August 26, one of the busiest data days of the year.
For context, the July labor data released earlier this month continues to weigh on the Fed's stance: Nonfarm Payrolls fell by 23,000 jobs and the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%. At the July 29 meeting, the Fed held interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% in a 9–3 vote, with three FOMC members favoring a 25-basis-point hike. It is this combination of a softening labor market and inflation still above target that makes Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole this week highly anticipated.
Initial Conditions: Bitcoin Tests the US$75,000 Psychological Level
Bitcoin enters this week in a much stronger position than it was at the start of August. BTC touched US$75,897.34 during the Asian session on August 21, 2026, marking a weekly gain of over 20% — its largest weekly increase in about 2.5 years. This momentum has Bitcoin now "teasing" the US$75,000 psychological level after trading below US$63,000 in late July.
One of the primary drivers is the surge in inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs throughout August 17–21:
- August 17: US$297.56 million
- August 18: US$189.30 million
- August 19: US$517.19 million
- August 20: US$606.29 million
- August 21: US$307 million
Total inflows over those five sessions reached approximately US$2.61 billion — the best week since October of last year — with Bitcoin ETFs accounting for about US$1.92 billion (73%) and Ethereum ETFs for about US$697.47 million (27%). BlackRock's IBIT was once again the largest contributor over several sessions.
However, a number of analysts caution against concluding too quickly that this trend will persist. Before this five-day streak of inflows, researcher Nick Ruck warned that "sustained inflows are difficult to achieve without confirmation of additional catalysts" and could potentially be temporary rather than structural. Some of Bitcoin's technical indicators have also entered overbought territory, so the risk of a short-term correction remains, even though the breakout structure looks solid.
Track Bitcoin prices in real-time on Mobee.
Event #1: Consumer Confidence Kicks Off the Week
The Conference Board will release the Consumer Confidence Index for August on Tuesday, August 25, at 10:00 AM ET. This data will serve as an early indicator of how American households view current economic conditions and their expectations for the next six months, amid signs of a weakening labor market that have emerged since the beginning of August.
Consumer confidence that is weaker than expected could strengthen the argument for the Fed to adopt a more accommodative stance, while a solid figure could reduce the urgency for near-term monetary policy easing.
Event #2: July PCE — The Most Important Data Before the September Rate Decision
On Wednesday, August 26, at 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Income and Outlays report, which includes the July PCE Price Index — the inflation measure most closely watched by the Fed compared to the CPI.
For comparison, June data showed core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year (down slightly from 3.4% in May) with a monthly increase of only 0.1%, while headline PCE was recorded at 3.7% year-over-year. However, July PPI data released in mid-August provided a warning signal: core PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month (significantly higher than the 0.1% in June), driven by a 6.5% surge in portfolio management fees — a component that has historically fed into core PCE calculations. Capital Economics chief economist Stephen Brown expects July core PCE to rise by about 0.21% month-over-month, higher than the trend of recent months.
Because of this, many economists are calling this PCE release the "most consequential data" ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision in September.
If PCE is Lower Than ExpectedSigns of easing price pressures could strengthen market expectations for a September rate cut, supporting risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum to continue their momentum toward US$76,000 and beyond.
If PCE Meets ExpectationsThe market will likely remain focused on waiting for Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday for further confirmation of policy direction.
If PCE is Higher (As Warned by PPI Data)This scenario risks strengthening the US dollar and bond yields, while pressuring Bitcoin to retest the US$70,000 area or lower, especially if it coincides with a hawkish tone from Warsh two days later.
Event #3: Second Estimate of Q2 GDP and Durable Goods
Also on Wednesday, August 26 at 8:30 AM ET, the BEA is scheduled to release the second estimate of Q2 2026 GDP, alongside the July Durable Goods Orders report from the Census Bureau at the same time.
The advance estimate released at the end of July showed the US economy grew by 1.5% in the second quarter—a slowdown compared to the previous quarter, while also confirming that inflationary pressure remains high. The market will be watching closely to see if this second estimate is revised upward, downward, or remains unchanged, as this figure helps shape the picture of whether the economic slowdown is significant enough to prompt the Fed to ease policy in the coming quarter.
Event #4: Wednesday Night Big Tech — Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike
After the US stock market closes on Wednesday, August 26 (early Thursday morning WIB), it is the turn of tech giants' earnings reports to take the spotlight:
Nvidia (NVDA) reports its quarterly results with a primary focus on Data Center revenue growth, progress on Blackwell chip shipments, gross margins, and forward guidance. In the previous quarter, Nvidia recorded 85% year-over-year revenue growth with Data Center revenue nearly doubling—making it one of the most important barometers for the direction of global AI infrastructure spending. If you want to understand the prospects and risks of this stock in more depth, read Nvidia Stock 2026: AI Prospects, Valuation, and Risks.
Salesforce (CRM) faces increased pressure to prove that its AI Agentforce platform is truly generating revenue rather than just adding to costs, after previous guidance disappointed investors.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) is expected to see continued strong demand in the cybersecurity sector, with investor focus on annual recurring revenue, new customer acquisition, profit margins, and commentary regarding AI integration.
The earnings of these three companies do not directly drive Bitcoin's fundamentals, but strong results could support risk-on sentiment on the Nasdaq, while disappointing guidance could trigger volatility in tech stocks that spills over into the crypto market—given that AAPL, NVDA, and a number of US tech stocks are now also accessible via xStocks on Mobee.
Event #5: Jackson Hole and Kevin Warsh's Debut as Fed Chair
The Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole takes place from Thursday to Saturday, August 27–29, 2026, with the official theme "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," attended by approximately 120 central bankers, economists, and officials from over 70 countries.
However, market attention will be focused on Friday, August 28, at approximately 10:00 AM ET (around 9:00 PM WIB), when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote address at Jackson Hole since taking office. Although the symposium's official theme covers payment infrastructure, the market will be more focused on scrutinizing Warsh's signals regarding the direction of September's interest rate policy—whether the Fed will continue its cautious stance as seen in the July 29 decision, or begin to open the door for easing amid weakening labor data.
The day before, Thursday, August 27, it is the turn of Marvell Technology (MRVL) to report its quarterly results after the market closes, with revenue expectations of around US$2.71 billion, or growth of approximately 35% year-on-year. Because its stock has already surged more than 190% this year, the market will be watching to see if the results and forward guidance align with such a high valuation—especially regarding competition in custom AI chips with Nvidia. US retailer Dollar General (DG) is also reporting results on the same day, providing a snapshot of the purchasing power of lower-income US consumers.
If Warsh delivers a hawkish tone emphasizing inflation risks, bond yields and the US dollar could strengthen again, putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks and Bitcoin. Conversely, more accommodative signals could strengthen the rally momentum that has been building since mid-August.
CLARITY Act: Not Yet a Catalyst, Delayed Until September
Just like last week, the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) will not receive a final vote this week. The US Senate has indeed initiated the process through a motion to proceed filed by Majority Leader John Thune on August 8, but the cloture process requires several stages and a waiting period before a final vote can take place.
This bill is now projected to receive an initial procedural vote once the Senate reconvenes in early September, requiring a minimum of 60 votes—likely needing the support of about 10 Democratic senators—amid ongoing negotiations at the White House regarding government ethics provisions, law enforcement protections, and stablecoin reward rules. If you want to understand why regulatory clarity like this is important for crypto investors, you can read Crypto Legality: Opportunities and Regulations Investors Need to Know.
In other words, the week of August 24–28 is practically still without any major legislative catalysts, and market attention regarding regulation will remain focused more on signals from the Fed and regulators than from Congress.
The Fed Faces a Dual Test: High Inflation, Weakening Labor Market
The combination of data emerging since late July has made the Fed's position increasingly complicated. On one hand, July Nonfarm Payrolls fell by 23,000 and the unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, signaling that the labor market is beginning to lose momentum. On the other hand, July CPI was recorded at 3.4% year-on-year (in line with consensus) and July PPI showed core producer inflation actually accelerating by 0.4% month-on-month—a signal that price pressures at the producer level have not fully subsided.
This condition is what makes the combination of the PCE (Wednesday) and Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole (Friday) so important this week: both will be the clearest indicators of whether the Fed is inclined to maintain its cautious stance on inflation or begin to provide room for policy easing ahead of the September interest rate decision.
Three Bitcoin Scenarios for This Week
The following probabilities are editorial estimates based on Bitcoin's position at the start of the week, ETF flows, and the macro agenda for August 24–28. These figures are not statistical probabilities or guarantees of price movement.
Scenario 1 — BullishIndicative probability: 30% July PCE shows lower inflationary pressure than Capital Economics' forecast, GDP and Consumer Confidence remain relatively stable, Nvidia and Marvell earnings receive a positive response, and Warsh delivers a more accommodative tone at Jackson Hole. Bitcoin has the opportunity to break through US$76,000–US$80,000, with potential for further gains toward US$83,000 if ETF inflow momentum continues.
Scenario 2 — SidewaysIndicative probability: 40% PCE nears expectations, GDP revisions are insignificant, big tech earnings produce mixed reactions, and Warsh's speech tends to be neutral without clear signals regarding September. Bitcoin is likely to consolidate in the US$70,000–US$76,000 range.
Scenario 3 — BearishIndicative probability: 30% July PCE is hotter than expected in line with PPI data warnings, Nvidia or Marvell earnings disappoint the market, and Warsh delivers a hawkish tone emphasizing inflation risks. In this scenario, Bitcoin risks losing the US$70,000 level and retesting US$66,500–US$65,400.
Full Agenda to Watch
Monday, August 24No major macro agenda. Bitcoin begins the week in a consolidation phase following a rally of over 20% the previous week.
Tuesday, August 25 at 9:00 PM WIBThe Conference Board's August Consumer Confidence Index is released, kicking off this week's series of key data.
Wednesday, August 26 at 7:30 PM WIBThe July PCE Price Index, the second estimate of Q2 2026 GDP, and July Durable Goods Orders are released simultaneously—one of the busiest data days of the year. After the US market close, Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike report quarterly results.
Thursday, August 27The Jackson Hole Symposium officially begins. Marvell Technology and Dollar General report quarterly results after the US market close.
Friday, August 28 at 9:00 PM WIBFed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote speech at Jackson Hole. The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is also released at the same time.
Critical Bitcoin Levels to Watch
US$76,159–US$80,000 — Immediate resistanceThis zone became a direct breakout target immediately after Bitcoin breached the psychological level of US$75,000.
US$83,000 — Next resistanceThis area is the next target if the initial breakout is confirmed with solid volume.
US$87,000 (60-day SMA) — Key trend reversal levelThis 60-day moving average is a crucial level that could potentially reverse the medium-term bearish trend that has persisted throughout this year if it is successfully breached.
US$70,000 — Primary supportThis level has just formed as support following last week's breakout. Losing this level risks triggering a retest of the US$66,000 area.
US$66,519 and US$65,416 — Secondary supportThese two levels are near the July closing high and the early August opening area, respectively, and could serve as a defensive zone if the correction continues.
US$58,300 — Tertiary supportThis area serves as a deeper line of defense if market sentiment shifts significantly due to hot inflation data or hawkish tones from Jackson Hole.
These levels are editorial technical estimates based on the latest price data and are not a guarantee of market direction.
Conclusion
The week of August 24–28, 2026, has brought Bitcoin into a different phase compared to previous weeks. After a rally of more than 20% in a week, driven by the US Treasury's bond buyback plan and US$2.61 billion in ETF inflows, BTC is now testing the US$75,000 psychological level with technical indicators beginning to enter overbought territory.
Market attention this week is focused on two major events: July's PCE data on Wednesday, which could show higher inflationary pressure following signals from the PPI, and the debut speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole on Friday, which will provide clues on the direction of September's interest rate policy. Meanwhile, earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Marvell will test whether the AI infrastructure spending narrative remains strong enough to support risk-on sentiment in both stock and crypto markets.
Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act is not yet a direct catalyst as the Senate process will only resume in early September. Technically, US$76,159–US$80,000 is the resistance zone that Bitcoin needs to clear to maintain momentum, while US$70,000 remains the primary defense level that must be held amid potential volatility leading up to and following the Jackson Hole speech.
If you want to understand other products that can be utilized amid this week's volatility, you can also read Dual Investment for AAPL, NVDA, and SPCX Is Now Available on Mobee! or learn the basics of US stock analysis through US Stock Fundamental Analysis: 2026 Investment Guide.
Disclaimer: All content in this article is for informational and predictive purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Price projections, scenarios, and probability estimates are not guarantees of future results. The crypto market is highly volatile. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
