That article did not give the highest weight to any one scenario, and the result was in line with our reasoning: Bitcoin held around US$80,000 until Wednesday, then dropped to US$76,155.5 on Friday and closed the week down 2.26%, from US$80,048.5 to US$78,239.2.

Today Bitcoin is at US$78,326.7 (Kraken, read around 09:27 WIB), and on Mobee BTC/IDR is at Rp1,420,320,473. This week the market's attention is on three things: the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, the Bank of England decision on Thursday, November 5, and the jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) on Friday, November 6 at 20:30 WIB. On the crypto side, the Binance story is still developing, and there are several token unlocks for assets available on Mobee, mainly KITE on Tuesday evening.

Retrospective: Which Scenarios Played Out

This section comes first so readers can judge how far the scenarios in this article deserve to be trusted.

Scenario A, recovering above US$80,000 and testing US$81,943 to US$83,000, partly played out. Bitcoin closed Monday at US$80,001.9, Tuesday at US$80,800.9, and Wednesday at US$81,287.1, with ETF flows positive four days in a row (data below). Thursday's high of US$81,882.0 fell about US$61 short of US$81,943 and did not touch US$83,000, and then the price reversed.

Scenario B, consolidation between US$79,121 and US$81,000, holding until Wednesday and breaking on Thursday. The Monday and Tuesday lows (US$79,265.0 and US$79,378.5) stayed above US$79,121, and the Tuesday and Wednesday highs (US$81,199.7 and US$81,709.1) went slightly past US$81,000. The range did not hold through Thursday.

Scenario C, falling below US$79,120.8 and testing US$78,000 to US$75,000, played out, but did not reach US$75,000. The Thursday low of US$77,688.1 and the Friday low of US$76,155.5 were below US$78,000 and above US$75,000. Our statement that a daily close below US$79,121 would signal more pressure also proved right: Thursday closed at US$77,800.0 and Friday at US$77,204.3. Of the triggers we named, the ones that also occurred were the Fed's hawkish tone (rates held with two votes for a hike), third-quarter GDP stronger than expected (3.4% versus a consensus of about 3.2%), and AI capital spending worries that pressured the Nasdaq on Friday.

One thing we got right: not giving the highest weight to any one scenario proved reasonable, because two of the three scenarios occurred in the same week. One thing we did not cover: the Binance incident was not a trigger we could put on a schedule, and no scenario mentioned it. That is why position size and levels are more useful than the calendar.

Last Week in Numbers

Source: Kraken, Farside Investors and SoSoValue (via CryptoSlate and FinanceFeeds), Yahoo Finance and Investrade (October 30 close), alternative.me. ETF totals and the weekly percentage are our calculations. The Ether ETF figure is a five-day total from one source (FinanceFeeds), and we could not find the daily figures for October 26 to 28. Gold and oil come from different sources than the last edition, so we did not calculate their weekly percentages.

Three things stand out from the table. First, the Nasdaq fell 2.86% on Friday, its largest one-day drop since June (Yahoo Finance), after AI capital spending worries returned following the Amazon and Alphabet reports, Intel's weak outlook, and Coinbase and Circle shares that were also pressured by the Binance news. Bitcoin fell to its low of the week on the same day. Second, ETF flows reversed sharply. The first four days recorded inflows of about US$440.7 million, then Friday saw outflows of about US$643.3 million, the largest in a single day since June 25 (FinanceFeeds). Third, gold fell too. Gold dropped to roughly a one-year low and October became gold's worst month since 2008 according to Mining.com and XTB, so last week was not only about crypto. A fuller explanation is in digital gold price today.

Binance: What Has Been Reported and What Is Unclear

This was the biggest news of last week, and the story is still developing. We separate what official parties have said from what the media has reported.

What has been reported. Binance said on October 29 US time that it was aware of a potential security issue, and according to PBS and CNBC about US$6.3 billion in assets were affected. Estimates from analytics firms differ: about US$5.91 billion (Chainalysis) to US$6.43 billion (Elliptic), according to The Hacker News. Binance said it will cover all losses from the SAFU reserve fund and company funds. The reimbursement percentage cited rose from about 80% (October 30) to about 95% (November 1), and the 95% figure is Binance's own claim that has not been audited by an independent party (Tech Insider, November 2). Withdrawals reopened in stages starting Sunday, November 1, beginning with Bitcoin, then ETH, USDT, USDC, and BNB on the main networks. Other assets follow in stages with no schedule.

Cause and perpetrator. According to initial findings shared by Binance (cited by The Hacker News and Feld), the attack began with a compromised DevOps engineer's laptop, and Binance has not published a full root cause analysis. According to Forbes and tech-ish (November 1), the FBI said the attack was carried out by the TraderTraitor group linked to North Korea, while Binance itself has not named a perpetrator. One CNBC Indonesia report wrote that President Trump said the US does not yet know whether North Korea is responsible. We have not confirmed that report, and it contradicts the FBI statement above.

What is not known. The zero-knowledge proof of reserves originally promised for Monday is now said to be completed by Tuesday, November 3 UTC at the latest and to cover only the ten main assets. The total of frozen funds differs between sources (about US$2.3 billion to US$3 billion). On the domestic market, OJK's Head of Supervision for fintech, digital financial assets, and crypto assets, Adi Budiarso, said on November 1 that there were no mass withdrawals on Indonesian platforms and that the Binance incident does not reflect the whole industry (investortrust.id). Separately from Binance, Indodax temporarily halted deposits and withdrawals on October 29 and its services fully recovered on the evening of Saturday, October 31, according to investortrust.id. Tokocrypto described a fake notification on October 27 as a phishing attempt with no impact on user assets.

The market impact was recorded through liquidations: about US$1.3 billion to US$1.5 billion in positions were liquidated on October 30 depending on the source. For an explanation of how to choose where to keep assets, see crypto exchanges licensed and supervised by OJK.

What the Fed Said and Where Rates Stand

The Fed held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 on a 10 to 2 vote: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a 25 basis point hike. The official statement replaced "solid" with "a strong pace" for economic activity and removed the sentence linking the September hike to inflation returning to 2% faster. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not commit to a December hike. Data since then has been strong: third-quarter GDP of 3.4%, September PCE inflation of 3.6% year over year and core PCE of 3.1%. The odds of a 25 basis point hike in December are reported at about 70% to 85% depending on the source (85.0% according to HackerNoon after the October 28 close, about 70% to 80% according to other sources), and we have not checked CME directly. The next meeting is December 8 to 9. There is no FOMC meeting this week, so Friday's jobs data is the main clue to the direction of those expectations.

Starting Conditions: Market Position on Monday, November 2

Source: Mobee pair pages (read around 09:26 WIB, November 2, 2026) and Kraken (last price and UTC daily candles, read around 09:27 WIB). The 24-hour percentages on Mobee and the change since the Sunday, October 25 close on Kraken use different windows, and the last column is our calculation.

Three things stand out.

First, this morning the market is starting to recover slightly after a narrow weekend. Bitcoin closed Saturday at US$77,437.0 and Sunday at US$78,239.2, with Sunday's range at about 1.3%. All four large assets are still below their position of a week ago, and three of the four are green over 24 hours on Mobee, except Solana.

Second, Solana is the weakest. SOL is down about 6.3% since the October 25 close, compared with 2.2% for Bitcoin and 1.6% for Ethereum. Thursday's decline (from US$102.33 to US$95.40) is the largest in the daily candles we read.

Third, Bitcoin's distance from its record remains large. From the record of US$126,080, Bitcoin is still about 37.9% below, and getting back there would take a gain of about 61.0% (a 37.9% fall is not the same as needing to rise 37.9% to recover). Ethereum is about 53.7% below its record (US$4,946.05). The Fear and Greed Index from alternative.me is at 37 (Fear), up from 30 on October 30 and 31. Compare within a single source only, because other sources show different figures for the same day.

ETF Flows: Four Days of Inflows, Then One Day Erased Them

Source: Farside Investors (via CryptoSlate), SoSoValue (via TokenPost and FinanceFeeds). CryptoSlate wrote a total of -US$202.4 million and FinanceFeeds about -US$202.7 million, a small difference from rounding. Total net assets of US spot Bitcoin ETFs after October 30 were about US$98.14 billion (SoSoValue). Monday, November 2 flows had not been released when this article was written.

Friday's flows were the largest in a single day since June 25, and five of the twelve funds recorded outflows with none recording inflows. US spot Ether ETFs recorded outflows for five days in a row through October 30 with a total of about US$431.5 million (FinanceFeeds), and according to one source (Glassnode via Wu Blockchain), outflows for 23 consecutive days, which we have not verified because other sources count five. We use the five-day figure. Flows are context, not a single signal: last week four days of inflows did not hold the price up, and one day of outflows erased them.

The Deciding Moments This Week

The schedule below comes from public calendars (Newsquawk, Stockopedia, Bitcoinsistemi, Tokenomist) and may change. WIB times are calculated from UTC, with the US winter time change on November 1 (US data at 08:30 ET now falls at 20:30 WIB).

Moment #1: Tuesday, November 3, US Midterm Elections

The Polymarket prediction market (cited by Newsquawk) gives the Democratic Party about 94% to take the House and about 69% for the Senate, with a Democratic sweep scenario at about 70%. Stockopedia cited slightly different figures (91% and 65%). Those are prediction market odds, not results. For crypto, the relevant topic is the CLARITY Act: the cloture vote to end debate in the Senate failed 49 to 50 on September 15, and according to CoinGape the most realistic chance is in the post-election session. One analysis cited by The Block also said a Democratic win could open oversight of WLFI and TRUMP. Election results usually only become clear in the early hours WIB, and at that hour Asian liquidity is thin.

Moment #2: Thursday, November 5, Bank of England Decision (19:00 WIB)

A 25 basis point hike to 4.00% is almost fully priced in by the market, after the September meeting decided to hold on a 6 to 3 vote (Stockopedia and Newsquawk). What can move the market is the tone and the vote count, not the decision itself. Before that, on Tuesday, November 3 the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on rates (odds of a 25 basis point hike about 79% according to Newsquawk), and on Wednesday, November 4 preliminary eurozone inflation is released, as clues to the direction of other central banks.

Moment #3: Friday, November 6, October Jobs Report (20:30 WIB)

The nonfarm payrolls consensus is about +55 thousand (previously +29 thousand), the unemployment rate 4.2% unchanged, and average hourly earnings +0.3% month over month (previously +0.1%) and 2.9% year over year according to Newsquawk. Barclays expects +50 thousand. Because a December hike is already priced at 70% to 85%, wage figures hotter than expected could strengthen that expectation, and a weak figure could ease it. The lesson is the same as last week: what moves the market is the gap from consensus.

Moment #4: Monday, November 2 to Wednesday, November 4, ISM and Earnings Reports

ISM Manufacturing on Monday at 22:00 WIB (consensus 54.7 versus 54.5 previously), JOLTS and factory orders on Tuesday at 22:00 WIB, ADP on Wednesday at 20:15 WIB, and ISM Services on Wednesday at 22:00 WIB (consensus 54.7 versus 54.9). Corporate earnings: Apple on Monday after the close, AMD on Tuesday, and Arm on Wednesday. After last Friday, the AMD and Arm results are a continued test for the AI capital spending theme.

Moment #5: Monday, November 2 and Tuesday, November 3, Possible Strategy Purchase and Binance Proof of Reserves

Binance said its proof of reserves would be completed by Tuesday, November 3 UTC at the latest (see the section above). Separately, Michael Saylor posted "We found room for even more orange" on Sunday, November 1, which the media read as a hint of a Bitcoin purchase. That is not confirmation: Strategy usually announces through an 8-K filing on Monday, and the week before the company did not buy. Its latest holdings are 848,517 BTC at an average cost of about US$75,446, so today's Bitcoin price is only about 3.8% above it.

Moment #6: Throughout the Week, Token Unlocks and Events for Assets on Mobee

The table below only lists assets available on Mobee (IDR pairs read from Mobee pages on November 2). The figures come from different aggregators and in some cases contradict each other, so we write ranges and state the basis of the percentages.

Source: Tokenomist (via Tokenpost, PANews, Techflow, and Cryptonews.net), Bitcoinsistemi (daily schedule, times converted to WIB), Kraken support (AERO), Pluang (Coinbase, AERO), Buildix and Coinalertnews (HYPE), Bloomingbit (ADA). KITE time: 13:00 UTC according to Tokenpost, PANews, and Bitcoinsistemi, but Cryptonews.net wrote 00:00 UTC. Percentages use different denominators across sources (circulating, total, or market value) and we state the basis where it is known.

STABLE (also available on Mobee) is listed on November 8 by one source, but we did not read the amount, so we have not included it. After this week, the nearest unlocks for Mobee assets according to Tokenomist are APT (November 11), STRK (November 15), ARB (November 16), MON (November 24), and SUPRA (November 27). Token unlocks add to circulating supply, and the effect on price depends on how much of it the recipients sell. The percentage of circulating supply is more informative than the dollar value. How to read them is explained in token unlock.

On Mobee, five altcoins are in the spotlight today and all rose over 24 hours: MGO up 23.82%, EDENA 12.28%, SUPRA 11.35%, TRUMP 9.75%, and KITE 7.26%. Three of the five (MGO, EDENA, and in part SUPRA) have very small volume, so the percentages need to be read carefully. Details are in crypto news today.

Analysis: Why This Week Depends More on Events Than on Crypto Data

Three reasons why this week's weight lies outside price itself.

First, this week is full of binary events. The midterm elections, the BoE decision, and the jobs report fall within four days, and two of them occur at hours when Asian liquidity is thin. A result far from expectations in any of them could shift rate expectations or risk appetite within hours.

Second, the market is still digesting the Binance incident. Most of the impact is already in the price (liquidations of about US$1.3 billion to US$1.5 billion on Friday), but two things remain open: the proof of reserves on November 3 and whether the funds said to still be controlled by the attackers are sold or converted. That is news we cannot yet assess.

Third, the weekend recovery is narrow. Bitcoin moved about 1.3% on Sunday and about 0.83% in Saturday's candle, with Kraken volume on Saturday and Sunday (about 862 and 849 BTC) below one third of Thursday and Friday volume (about 3,682 and 3,934 BTC). Low volume means the weekend move has not been tested. A framework for reading levels is in how to determine support and resistance, and a broader analysis approach is in how to analyze crypto.

Investor Guide: Six Types of Market-Moving Moments

This section repeats every week because the framework is designed to be used again and again. Only the examples change.

Type 1, scheduled data releases. This week: ISM, JOLTS, ADP, and above all Friday's nonfarm payrolls. What moves the market is the gap from consensus, not the figure itself. Reduce leverage before the release, not after. Set a price alert so you do not have to watch the screen all the time.

Type 2, central bank decisions and communication. This week: the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and preliminary eurozone inflation. There is no FOMC, so Fed officials' speeches and the data results matter more, and tone often moves the market more than the decision.

Type 3, regulatory and policy events. The November 3 midterms are the biggest, with the CLARITY Act and the direction of crypto oversight as derivative topics. Regulator statements on the Binance incident may also appear but are not scheduled. Do not bet big on a single outcome, because legislative schedules can shift.

Type 4, earnings and corporate events. Apple, AMD, and Arm report this week, and Strategy may announce a Bitcoin purchase. Earnings can move risk sentiment across assets, including crypto.

Type 5, institutional fund flows and token unlocks. Last week Bitcoin ETF flows reversed to an outflow of US$643.3 million in one day. This week there are token unlocks for KITE, ENA, HYPE, and AVAX. Use flows as confirmation, not as the main signal.

Type 6, structural liquidity conditions and security. The election results and the jobs data fall at thin Asian hours, and exchange incidents like last week's can appear without a schedule. Use limit orders and split your position size, as discussed in order types in trading.

Three Bitcoin Scenarios This Week

Note: the scenarios below are editorial estimates based on data as of November 2, 2026. They are not predictions and not recommendations. This week we are not giving the highest weight to any scenario, and last week's result (two scenarios occurring in turn and one surprise outside the scenarios) is in line with that decision.

Scenario A, holding above US$78,000 and testing US$80,000 to US$81,287. The triggers would be an election result the market reads as unsurprising, jobs figures that are not hotter than expected, ETF flows returning to inflows, and Binance news becoming clearer. US$80,000 is about 2.14% above the price, and US$81,287 (the Wednesday, October 28 close) about 3.78%. Last week four days of inflows were not enough to hold the price above US$81,882, so inflows alone are not a sufficient condition.

Scenario B, consolidation between US$77,000 and US$78,667. The market waits for events and volume stays low as it did over the weekend. That range is about 2.2% and spans the Saturday low (US$77,000.0) to the Friday high (US$78,667.3), an area that holds every candle from Saturday to today.

Scenario C, falling below US$77,000 and testing US$76,155.5 to US$75,000. The triggers would be jobs or wage figures hotter than expected that raise the odds of a December hike, an election result or AI earnings report that pressures risk appetite, or new bad news from Binance. US$76,155.5 (the Friday low) is about 2.77% below the price and US$75,000 about 4.25%. A daily close below US$76,155 would signal more pressure than an intraday move, because that level has only been tested once.

Other Coins: Ethereum, Solana, XRP

Ethereum. ETH is at US$2,290.29 on Kraken, up about 0.8% since today's open, and about 1.6% below the October 25 close. The Friday low of US$2,170.00 is about 5.3% below the price. Ether ETFs recorded outflows for five days in a row (see above). On Mobee, ETH/IDR is at Rp41,520,092, up 1.20% over 24 hours. We found no Ethereum protocol events this week. The Devcon 8 conference in Mumbai runs November 3 to 6, and the mainnet date for the Glamsterdam upgrade has not been set (target Q4 2026).

Solana. SOL/IDR is at Rp1,722,987 on Mobee, down 0.21% over 24 hours, and global SOL is at US$94.88. The Friday low of US$92.15 is about 2.9% below the price. We could not confirm whether the Alpenglow consensus upgrade that Anza scheduled for October 21 is already active, so we do not cover it.

XRP. XRP/IDR is at Rp22,738 on Mobee, up 0.57% over 24 hours, and global XRP is at US$1.25222, about 3.3% below the October 25 close. The Friday low of US$1.19685 is about 4.4% below the price.

Full Agenda for November 2 to 8, 2026

Source: Newsquawk, Stockopedia, Bitcoinsistemi, Tokenomist (via the aggregators above), Kraken. Schedules and times may change. We did not find a confirmed schedule of Fed official speeches for this week, and the BPS release dates (Indonesia's October inflation and Q3 GDP) are not yet confirmed, so we have not included them.

Bitcoin Critical Levels

Note: the levels below are technical references from the available data, not price targets. Strategy's average cost is a cost reference, not a technical level.

The current price is between Friday's high (US$78,667.3) and Thursday's low (US$77,688.1), in an area many candles have passed through since Thursday. Daily highs fell from Thursday to Saturday (US$81,882.0, US$78,667.3, then US$77,636.1) and rose slightly on Sunday (US$78,415.5), but daily lows have risen since Friday (US$76,155.5, US$77,000.0, US$77,385.8, then US$77,933.3 today), so the range is narrowing. A narrowing range can break in either direction.

The level most worth watching is US$77,000 to US$78,667. Bitcoin closed Sunday at US$78,239.2, in the middle of that range. A level that holds after being tested confirms its support. A level that breaks invalidates it.

Conclusion

Last week the market learned that the biggest risk can come from outside the calendar: Bitcoin held around US$80,000 until the Binance incident and the Nasdaq decline arrived on the same day. This week the calendar is packed, and the Binance story is still developing.

Three things to remember:

First, three events are decisive: the midterm elections (November 3), the Bank of England (November 5), and payrolls (November 6). What moves is the gap from expectations, and two of them fall at thin Asian hours.

Second, this week's token unlocks need to be read as ranges, not single figures. For KITE, trackers differ from 153 million to 1.6 billion tokens. Check the percentage of circulating supply and the release time before interpreting.

Third, US$77,000 to US$78,667 is the deciding range. Lows are rising and highs are falling, so whether this range breaks up or down is the most important technical question of the week.

One thing from last week is worth carrying forward: two scenarios can occur in the same week, and events outside the scenarios can still arrive. A good plan prepares answers for all three and leaves room for a fourth.

For those building an allocation, Beginner Crypto Portfolio and exit strategy are two relevant reads. For cash waiting for the right moment, Flexi Earn keeps it working while you wait. Daily prices are in Bitcoin price today and digital gold price today.

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Disclaimer: This article is prepared for information and education only and is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any asset, or financial advice. All price, fund flow, and schedule data was taken on November 2, 2026 and can change. Scenarios and technical levels are editorial estimates, not predictions. Crypto assets are highly volatile and carry a risk of total loss. Do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any decision. Mobee is operated by PT CTXG Indonesia Berkarya, licensed and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). The list of licensed platforms can be checked at crypto exchanges licensed and supervised by OJK.