With a circulating supply of approximately 20.08 million BTC, the market capitalization at the current price level is around US$1.55 trillion.
Track today's Bitcoin price in real-time on Mobee.
The Looming Shadow: Odds of an Interest Rate Hike Jump to 66%
Monetary policy pressure has yet to subside as we enter September. According to CME FedWatch data as of August 31, the probability of an interest rate hike at the Fed's mid-September meeting now stands at approximately 66%, a significant increase from the "coin flip" or 50-50 scenario reflected shortly after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on August 28, and a far cry from the 35% chance seen before that speech. We discuss the link between monetary policy direction and asset values in fiat currency.
A surge in expectations of this magnitude is typically followed by a strengthening dollar and rising US Treasury yields, two factors that historically dampen risk appetite for assets like crypto. Nevertheless, BTC is currently holding above the psychological level of US$77,000, indicating that selling pressure has not yet turned into a massive sell-off.
Price Journey: August Rally Stalls Below US$80,000
Bitcoin recorded a gain of approximately 24% throughout August, which some analysts have called its largest monthly increase this year, after a mid-month rally from the US$60,000 range pushed the price past US$80,000 over the weekend. However, that momentum has not been convincingly sustained, and the price has since trended downward and sideways.
The journey to this point has not been smooth. On August 22, a flash crash wiped out billions of dollars in leveraged positions within hours, before the price staged a sharp recovery toward the end of last week. Now, entering early September, the price is being tested again at a critical support zone, with order flow data showing signs of fragile stabilization: daily delta was negative on August 28 before turning positive on August 30 and 31, although the overall technical prediction score remains slightly bearish.
Bitcoin's Position Relative to Its All-Time High
This context is important so that the August gains are not overstated. Bitcoin's all-time high is US$126,198, reached on October 6, 2025. With today's price at around US$77,200, Bitcoin is still approximately 38.8% below its record. To return to that level, a gain of about 63.5% from the current price is required.
On the supply side, the number of Bitcoins in circulation is now approximately 20.08 million coins, or about 95.6% of the 21 million maximum limit established from the start. We explain this supply limitation mechanism in Bitcoin halving. To understand the stages of the crypto market cycle more broadly, we discuss them in crypto bull market cycles.
Market Sentiment: Three Signals to Watch
Rather than euphoria, a number of analysts are now highlighting three warning signals behind the August rally. First, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges, particularly Binance, have risen to around 687,000 BTC, the highest level throughout 2026, far from their low of around 617,000 BTC at the end of April. An increase in exchange reserves during a rally typically signals that more coins are potentially being prepared for sale.
Second, ETF flows have reversed. After recording nine consecutive days of net inflows, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of US$201.9 million on August 28, before returning to a modest inflow of around US$17.3 million on August 31. On a weekly basis, inflows plummeted 51.8% to approximately US$924.5 million, down from about US$1.92 billion the previous week.
Third, spot demand remains relatively weak. Cumulative volume delta (CVD) data in the spot market has been relatively flat despite the price increase late last week, an indication that the price rise was driven more by leveraged positions in the derivatives market than by actual buying in the spot market.
What Will Determine the Direction This Week
A number of key data points will be released gradually throughout this week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI and NIO's quarterly report are scheduled for today, Tuesday, September 1. Broadcom (AVGO) reports its third-quarter fiscal results on Wednesday, September 2, after the market closes, followed by Zscaler and DocuSign on Thursday, September 3. The highlight will be the August Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for release on Friday, September 4, data that will be crucial in determining the Fed's policy direction ahead of the FOMC meeting on September 15-16.
In addition to the economic agenda, the CLARITY Act, a bill concerning crypto market structure, is back in the spotlight after failing to pass before the US Senate's summer recess. With the Senate back in full session starting this week, developments in this legislation could serve as an additional catalyst for overall crypto sentiment.
Technical Analysis and Levels to Watch
The price is currently testing critical support at US$77,165, a level that buyers must maintain to prevent the short-term structure from deteriorating. The first bullish threshold is at US$78,340, followed by the transition zone of US$78,800-US$79,000, and a more convincing reversal confirmation will only occur if the price breaks through the US$79,730-US$79,920 zone. Further upside targets are at US$80,280 and US$81,000.
On the downside, if the US$77,165 support fails to hold, attention will shift to the long-term weekly support around US$64,000, a level that has served as the invalidation point for the uptrend structure since June. To learn how to read these patterns and signals yourself, we have compiled a guide on how to analyze crypto and what is bullish divergence.
The levels above are editorial technical estimates based on recent price action, not a guarantee of the market's next direction.
What to Watch Out For
Historically, September is known as the weakest month for Bitcoin since 2013, with an average decline of around 3.08%, although the last three years have actually closed in positive territory. The combination of a historically less favorable season, the three warning signals mentioned above, and a week packed with economic data means that potential volatility remains high, especially ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls release at the end of this week.
Keep in mind that the flash crash on August 22 also occurred amidst a seemingly calm market before surprising data emerged. The sharp spike in interest rate expectations from around 35% to 66% in a short time shows how quickly sentiment can shift once new data surprises the market, whether in a direction that benefits or harms current positions.
For a market that moves as volatilely as this, Spot Grid allows for automatic buy and sell orders within a price range you define yourself, so the results do not depend entirely on perfect entry timing. Before you start, it is a good idea to read some crypto trading tips basics and understanding how to store assets securely.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's price today, September 1, 2026, is hovering around US$77,200 with a market capitalization of approximately US$1.55 trillion, testing a critical support level at US$77,165 after a 24% rally in August stalled below US$80,000. Three warning signs are emerging: Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have reached their highest level of 2026, ETF flows have turned weak following nine consecutive days of inflows, and last weekend's price increase was driven more by leverage than real spot demand. Above all, the probability of a September interest rate hike jumping to 66% serves as a reminder that pressure from monetary policy has not yet fully subsided.
This week will be marked by a series of key data releases, ranging from today's ISM Manufacturing PMI, earnings from Broadcom, NIO, Zscaler, and DocuSign, to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report, all of which will collectively determine whether Bitcoin can reverse its short-term trend or face further downward pressure toward support below US$77,000.
Disclaimer. All information in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices can change rapidly, even within minutes. Always conduct your own research and align your decisions with your risk profile.
