Key Points

• The Bitcoin price today is around US$76,940.4 (Kraken, read around 09:03 WIB), down about 1.8% from the price we wrote yesterday morning (US$78,326.7) and up about 0.35% from Monday's close (US$76,675.8). Today's low of US$76,537.6 is already very close to Monday's low (US$76,564.7).
• On Mobee, BTC/IDR trades at Rp1,401,000,000, down 1.43% over 24 hours, with a 24-hour range of Rp1,394,098,842 to Rp1,427,455,217.
• On Monday Bitcoin rose to US$78,739.7, then reversed and closed at US$76,675.8, down about 2.0% on the day with Kraken volume of about 2,485 BTC. That was the largest daily drop since October 29 (about -4.3%), and the weekend recovery we called untested did not hold.
• According to media reports, US tech stocks weakened (Nasdaq down 1.07% on Monday), Binance recorded large outflows since withdrawals reopened, and Morgan Stanley downgraded Coinbase. The causal link cannot be confirmed, and figures differ between sources.
• Strategy reported buying 811 BTC in the week of October 26 to November 1 at an average price of US$80,846, about 5.1% above today's price. The average cost of its entire holding is US$75,451, about 1.9% below today's price.
• We have not found US spot Bitcoin ETF flow data for Monday. The latest data we have: outflows of about US$643.3 million on Friday, October 30.
• The odds of a Fed rate hike in December are reported at about 76% to 77% (CME FedWatch via Reuters and FatTail's calculation), down from about 80% a week ago.
• Today: the US midterm elections, the RBA decision, JOLTS at 22:00 WIB, and Binance's proof of reserves. This week: the Bank of England (Thursday, November 5, at 19:00 WIB) and the jobs report (Friday, November 6, at 20:30 WIB).

Bitcoin Price Today

Yesterday we wrote that rising daily lows and a narrowing range could break in either direction, and that the weekend recovery was untested. Monday supplied the answer: the price briefly rose to US$78,739.7 but closed the day at US$76,675.8, below Saturday's close (US$77,437.0) and Sunday's (US$78,239.2). The daily close below US$76,155.5 that we flagged as a sign of more pressure did not happen, because Monday's low of US$76,564.7 is still above Friday's low.

The Bitcoin price today, Tuesday, November 3, 2026, is around US$76,940.4 according to Kraken, read at about 09:03 WIB. Within today's range (the candle is not final, opened at US$76,676.8), the price moved from US$76,537.6 to US$77,178.6, a spread of about 0.84%. Compared with the Wednesday, October 28 close (US$81,287.1), Bitcoin is about 5.4% lower, and compared with October's peak (US$87,229.0 on October 2) about 11.8% lower. From the all-time high of US$126,080, Bitcoin is about 39.0% below, and it would need to rise about 63.9% to get back there. The gap between the two figures is not a miscalculation: a 39.0% decline is not the same as needing a 39.0% rise to recover.

On Mobee, the BTC/IDR pair trades at Rp1,401,000,000, down 1.43% over 24 hours. The 24-hour high was Rp1,427,455,217 and the low Rp1,394,098,842. The implied exchange rate is about Rp18,209 per dollar (Mobee price divided by Kraken price), slightly above Monday's rupiah close (Bloomberg spot Rp18,156, JISDOR Rp18,161). A small gap like that is normal because the two sources were read at different times, so compare price levels, not just percentages.

To keep an eye on the market without staring at a screen, the price alert feature on Mobee can be set at the levels below.

From October 22 to Today: Up to US$78,740, Then Back to the Bottom of the Range

Source: Kraken, BTC/USD daily candles in UTC (candles close at 07:00 WIB). The November 3 candle was read around 02:03 UTC (09:03 WIB), is not final, and its last figure is the price at the time of reading. The candles for October 22 to November 2 are final.

The seven daily closes from October 22 to 28 were in a range of US$80,001.9 to US$81,315.9. The October 29 candle broke that range (down about 4.3% from the open), and Friday added a new low at US$76,155.5. On Saturday and Sunday the daily low rose to US$77,000.0 and US$77,385.8, but weekend volume was only about 862 and 849 BTC. On Monday volume rose to about 2,485 BTC and the daily low fell back to US$76,564.7, below Saturday's and Sunday's lows. Today the price opened the candle at US$76,676.8 and is testing almost the same area (US$76,537.6). The US$76,155 to US$76,600 area has now been touched three times in five days (the lows of Friday, Monday, and today) and the daily close has stayed above US$76,155.5 every time, but a level that is tested more often is not automatically stronger.

Why Bitcoin Reversed on Monday: Several Factors at Once

Media reported several things that happened on the same day. We present them as context, not as a single explanation.

US stocks and oil. On Monday, November 2, the S&P 500 closed at 7,541.40 (-0.51%), the Nasdaq at 25,164.32 (-1.07%), and the Dow at 51,983.98 (+0.41%), according to the Closing Look market summary. According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin failed to break resistance around US$78,500 and fell about 1.7% that day as US stocks trimmed their early gains. Oil fell about 7% (WTI US$96.46 and Brent US$104.77) on hopes of a diplomatic settlement between the US and Iran, but the drop in oil did not lift Bitcoin. CoinDesk noted concerns about AI spending: Oracle announced fundraising to fund AI, and shares of Marvell and Intel fell sharply. The US midterm elections and the Apple and Palantir reports were also cited as reasons for caution.

Crypto stocks. According to CoinDesk, Morgan Stanley downgraded Coinbase (COIN) to underweight on Monday and crypto stocks fell (COIN about -5%).

Binance. Last week Binance announced a security incident that, according to PBS and CNBC, involved about US$6.3 billion in assets. Since withdrawals reopened in stages on Sunday, November 1, Binance has reported net outflows of about US$3.64 billion in the first 9.5 hours (Dataconomy), while DefiLlama via CoinDesk recorded about US$6.1 billion leaving Binance-linked wallets in 24 hours, with about US$129 billion remaining. Third-party figures differ (about US$4.5 billion to US$5.95 billion) because the periods and methods are not the same. Binance said it will cover all losses and cited reimbursement of about 95% (Binance's own claim, not independently audited).

The culprit and the stolen funds. The FBI named the TraderTraitor group, linked to North Korea, and 628 related addresses (Help Net Security). Binance itself has not named a culprit. QCP wrote that the attacker still holds Bitcoin and is splitting it into pieces of 1,000 and 100 BTC, so movements to exchanges could add selling pressure. That is QCP's assessment, not a proven fact.

Proof of reserves. Reports differ on its status. Crypto.news and TokenPost wrote that Binance completed a zero-knowledge proof for 10 assets (October 31 snapshot) on November 2, while Brad Feld and Bitcoin.com wrote that the full proof would only be ready Tuesday, November 3 UTC. We could not check Binance's page directly. That snapshot was taken before the wave of withdrawals on November 1, so it is not a solvency audit.

Liquidations. Figures differ by time window: about US$256 million on Monday midday New York time (Coinglass via Bitcoin.com, longs over US$176 million) and about US$298 million in the 12 hours through early Tuesday (Coinglass via ChainThink, longs about US$271 million). We did not find a single full 24-hour total for Monday, and the two figures should not be added together.

The head of OJK's crypto asset supervision said on November 1 that there were no mass withdrawals on Indonesian platforms (investortrust.id), and we have not found any OJK or Bappebti statement about Binance since. How to choose where to keep your assets is covered in crypto exchanges licensed and supervised by OJK.

ETF Flows: Monday's Data Is Not Available Yet

Source: Farside Investors (via Bareksa and CryptoSlate) and SoSoValue (via CryptoTicker and KuCoin). The total for that week was written as -US$202.4 million (Farside) and -US$203 million (SoSoValue), a small difference from rounding. Flows for Monday, November 2 and the total for November 2 to 6 have not been found.

Friday's outflows were the largest since June. For all of October, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of about US$515.9 million and spot Ether ETFs about US$1.61 billion, a monthly record for Ether ETFs (Cointelegraph and CoinDesk). One TokenPost article reported daily figures for Monday, but it was published before the US market closed and does not name its data provider, so we did not use it. The day the price fell the most (October 29) actually recorded a small inflow, and the day with the largest outflow was the day of the low (October 30), so fund flows are read as context, not a single signal. How to read them is covered in how to analyze crypto.

Latest: Strategy and Other Treasury Companies

Strategy filed an 8-K on Monday, November 2 (The Block and BitcoinTreasuries): in the period October 26 to November 1 the company bought 811 BTC for about US$65.5 million, at an average of US$80,846 per BTC (CoinDesk wrote 810 BTC). Its total holdings are now 849,327 BTC at an average cost of about US$75,451. The purchase was funded by selling about 1.18 million MSTR shares through its ATM program (about US$164 million), while the company also bought back about 2.09 million STRC preferred shares worth US$208.2 million from its dollar reserve and paid about US$43.4 million in preferred dividends. According to QCP, the MSCI decision on Strategy is scheduled for Wednesday, November 11. Strive also bought 124 BTC (total 43,124 BTC, SEC filing on November 2).

Today's price is about 1.9% above Strategy's average cost, but about 4.8% below the average price of last week's purchase. We do not link this news to today's move. We read the 8-K through media, not directly from the SEC.

Macro: December Hike Odds Still High

The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 on a 10 to 2 vote: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a 25 basis point hike. According to Reuters, CME FedWatch put the odds of a December hike at about 76.6% on November 2 at 09:11 New York time, down from about 80% a week earlier. FatTail's calculation from Fed funds futures gives 76.3% (not an official CME figure). We have not found a live FedWatch figure for this morning.

New US data: the ISM Manufacturing index for October was 55.5 (consensus about 54.5 to 54.7 depending on the source), with a prices paid component of 75.2 (CoinDesk). The US 10-year Treasury yield closed around 4.89% (down about 3.5 basis points) and the dollar index around 101.78, a fourth straight down session. The link between the dollar, interest rates, and risk assets is covered in the US dollar, and its role in policy in the main functions of a central bank.

On the corporate side, Apple reported after the close: revenue of US$114.5 billion (consensus about US$113.4 billion) and EPS of US$2.10 (consensus about US$1.99), but its shares briefly reversed lower after the holiday-quarter guidance (9to5Mac). Palantir reported revenue above expectations. That shows good results do not automatically lift a stock, and the same applies to crypto assets.

Technical Levels to Watch

On the downside, the nearest support is today's low of US$76,537.6 (about 0.52% below), Monday's low of US$76,564.7 (about 0.49%), US$76,155.5 Friday's low (about 1.02%), and the round number US$76,000 (about 1.22%). QCP says the US$76,000 to US$76,600 area has held four bounces since September. If that area breaks, QCP names the 50-week average at about US$75,700 (about 1.6% below) and the 200-day average at about US$73,100 (about 5.0%) as the next levels. In between are Strategy's average cost of US$75,451 (about 1.9%, a cost reference, not a technical level) and US$75,000 (about 2.5%).

On the upside, the nearest resistance is today's high of US$77,178.6 (about 0.31%), US$78,000 (about 1.38%), Monday's peak of US$78,739.7 (about 2.34%), US$79,120.8 the October 24 low, which now acts as resistance (about 2.83%), and US$80,000 (about 3.98%). Levels that swap roles are covered in support and resistance.

While the price is above US$76,155, the US$76,155 to US$76,600 area is the boundary many participants are watching, and a daily close below US$76,000 would signal that the area failed to hold. Standard Chartered (Geoffrey Kendrick) said negative price action still has room to run (Analytics Insight), and Rekt Capital named the possibility of a move below US$76,000. Because the Binance story is still developing and this week is packed with events, the price can move quickly in either direction without following these levels. This is a reference, not a prediction or a price target.

Sentiment: Fear and Greed

The Fear and Greed Index from CoinMarketCap was at 37 on November 2 (Fear), down from 43 a week earlier and 67 a month earlier. Other providers give different figures (TradingView cited 30 on October 30, without naming the provider), and we cannot confirm the alternative.me value for this morning. An index like this measures sentiment; it does not predict price.

Today's and This Week's Calendar

According to public calendars (schedules can change, times in WIB): Tuesday, November 3, the RBA decision at 10:30 WIB (a 25 basis point hike to 4.85% expected; the result was not out when this article was written), September JOLTS at 22:00 WIB (consensus about 7.1 million versus 7.079 million), the US midterm elections (prediction markets give Democrats about 92% to 94% odds of winning the House, per Kalshi and Polymarket on November 2; polls start closing around 06:00 WIB on Wednesday), AMD's report after the US market close, and Binance's proof of reserves (no later than November 3 UTC). Wednesday, November 4, ADP at 20:15 WIB and ISM Services at 22:00 WIB (consensus about 54.8 versus 54.9). Thursday, November 5, the Bank of England decision at 19:00 WIB (a hike to 4.00% is almost fully priced in). Friday, November 6, the US jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) for October at 20:30 WIB (consensus about 55,000 to 68,000 depending on the source, versus 29,000 in September, unemployment 4.2%). November 10, US CPI for October at 20:30 WIB. November 11, the MSCI decision on Strategy. December 8 to 9, the next FOMC meeting.

Ahead of a week packed with events, review your exit strategy and position size. Understanding order types in trading also helps with sudden moves.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin price today is around US$76,940, about 1.8% below the point we wrote yesterday morning and about 8.4% below the October 22 open, after rising to US$78,739.7 on Monday and then closing at US$76,675.8. The decline came alongside weakening tech stocks, large outflows from Binance, and Coinbase's downgrade, although we cannot confirm a single cause.

Two things are worth noting. First, the US$76,155 to US$76,600 area has been tested repeatedly and still held on daily closes, but if it closes below US$76,000, the next levels analysts name are around US$75,700 and US$73,100. Second, today and this week bring the midterm elections, Binance's proof of reserves, the Bank of England, and payrolls, so the figures and times we wrote can change.

For long-term investors, a few days of movement like this is better seen as part of the journey than a signal. Keeping the mix of your crypto portfolio balanced usually matters more to the final result than guessing price direction over a few days. The full weekly review is in crypto news this week.

Disclaimer

This article is prepared for information and education only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are high-risk instruments with large volatility. Do your own research and use funds whose risk you can bear. Mobee is operated by PT CTXG Indonesia Berkarya, licensed and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK).