This decline broke through two levels previously identified as the nearest support. Yesterday, XAUt held at US$4,346.03 with a 24-hour low of US$4,326.32, and the next area to watch if that level failed was US$4,300. Today, both have been breached: XAUt touched US$4,283.57 before returning to the US$4,298 range.
Physical gold is moving in the same direction and even lower. Spot gold prices are hovering around US$4,286.35 per troy ounce, down 1.47%, after falling below US$4,300 during Monday's session and hitting its lowest level in over a month.
Note: prices are subject to change at any time based on market movements, exchange rates, and liquidity for each trading pair.
Why Digital Gold Is Down Today
Volume rose 41% on the day of the decline, and that means something. XAUt trading volume rose from US$114.51 million yesterday to US$161.29 million today. A price drop accompanied by a surge in volume carries a different meaning than a decline on thin volume. The former indicates that sellers are genuinely offloading positions, while the latter looks more like a price slide due to a lack of interest. Today falls into the first category.
Expectations of an interest rate hike are nearing certainty. Futures markets place the probability of an interest rate hike at tomorrow's FOMC decision between 83% and 90%, depending on the source and time of reading. Interest rate hikes pressure gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. When deposits and bonds offer higher interest, holding gold becomes relatively more expensive.
A strengthening US dollar adds to the pressure. Gold is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers outside the United States and tends to dampen demand. The combination of a strengthening dollar and rising bond yields are two pressures working in the same direction, both stemming from the same Fed policy expectations.
Silver is falling harder than gold. Silver was recorded down 2.70% while gold was down 1.89% according to Kitco readings, pushing the gold-silver ratio up to around 68.1 from 67.9 yesterday. Silver typically moves more sharply than gold in both directions because its industrial demand makes it more sensitive to economic growth expectations, so a deeper decline in silver is a normal pattern in these conditions, rather than an additional, independent signal.
XAUt and physical gold are moving in tandem. XAUt at US$4,298.15 and spot gold at US$4,286.35 differ by only about 0.28%. A spread this small is normal and reflects the timing difference in price quotes rather than a difference in value, given that XAUt trades 24/7 while spot gold quotes follow specific market hours. For XAUt holders, this is actually good news, as it means the token tracks the physical gold price quite closely.
What to Watch
Nearest support at US$4,283.57, today's 24-hour low, which has been tested and held. If this level breaks following the FOMC decision, the next area of focus is US$4,254, a level mentioned since yesterday that has yet to be tested.
Nearest resistance at US$4,300, which has changed status. Yesterday, this level was an untouched support; today, it sits above the price, changing its function to resistance. Above it lies US$4,353.59, today's 24-hour high, followed by the US$4,400 to US$4,430 zone that was tested last week.
Distance from record highs. XAUt is currently about 21.9% below its record high of US$5,504.62 recorded on January 28, 2026. Yesterday the gap was 21.0%, so today's decline has widened that gap by nearly a percentage point.
Performance Across Timeframes
Over the past week, XAUt has fallen 2.3%, a deeper decline than the 1.8% drop recorded yesterday, indicating that the pressure is continuing and has not yet eased. Over the last 30 days, XAUt is still up 1.3%, and over the past year, it remains up 18.0%.
The difference between these three figures is important to read in context. The ongoing weekly decline shows clear short-term pressure, but the 30-day figure remains positive and the one-year figure is still up 18.0%, suggesting the long-term trend for gold has not changed direction. For comparison, gold's monthly decline was 2.94% while its annual gain was 16.50%, a similar pattern.
What should be avoided is drawing conclusions too quickly from one or two days of movement. The current pressure has a clear explanation, namely the near-certain expectation of an interest rate hike, and that explanation has an expiration date: tomorrow night when the Fed's decision is announced.
Agenda Determining the Direction
Tomorrow, September 16: FOMC decision and press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. This is the highest-impact agenda for the direction of gold in the coming days. Since an interest rate hike has already been largely priced in by the market, what will most likely determine the price direction is not the decision itself, but the tone of Warsh's press conference regarding how much further the tightening cycle will continue.
There are two scenarios worth preparing for. If Warsh's tone is more hawkish than expected, the pressure on gold could potentially continue below US$4,283. Conversely, if rates are raised but the tone signals that the tightening cycle is nearly complete, gold could potentially rebound after the hike is announced, because what has been suppressing the price is the expectation, not the decision itself.
Tonight around 01:00 WIB: Cloture vote on the CLARITY Act in the US Senate. The impact on gold is not direct, but the outcome of this vote has the potential to shift risk sentiment in the crypto market in general, which could spill over into demand for hedge assets, including digital gold.
Conclusion
XAUt fell 1.1% to US$4,298.15 on September 15, 2026, breaking through two support levels mentioned yesterday, with trading volume rising 41% to US$161.29 million. The combination of falling prices and rising volume indicates active selling, rather than just a price slide due to a lack of interest.
The pressure is clear and singular: the expectation of a Fed interest rate hike is nearing certainty, coupled with a strengthening dollar and rising bond yields, all three stemming from the same source. Therefore, tomorrow night's FOMC decision, particularly the tone of Warsh's press conference, will determine whether this pressure continues or ends once the uncertainty is removed.
Disclaimer. All information in this article is for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Assessments regarding the direction and causes of movement are editorial analyses based on data available as of September 15, 2026, not price predictions. XAUt represents one troy ounce of physical gold stored in a Swiss vault with London Good Delivery standards, and can be traded 24 hours a day in fractional amounts via the Mobee platform, which is supervised by the OJK. All price data is point-in-time as of the writing of this article and can change rapidly. Always conduct your own research and adjust your decisions to your individual risk profile.
