US Stocks October 28, 2026 Intermediate

Nvidia Stock (NVDA) 2026: Outlook, Valuation, and Risks

Author Bayu Samudera

Read time 5 min

Nvidia Stock (NVDA) 2026: Outlook, Valuation, and Risks

It is in the spotlight because of AI data center demand: revenue for the quarter ended July 26, 2026 reached US$96.2 billion. Its valuation is high, so the price can drop sharply when expectations change. From Indonesia, you can track its price through US stock tokens (xStocks) on Mobee.

Nvidia Stock at a Glance

Item	Details
Ticker	NVDA (Nasdaq, US)
Business	Designs GPUs and chips for AI computing, mainly for data centers
Latest revenue	US$96.2 billion for the quarter ended July 26, 2026 (up 106% from a year earlier)
Data center share	US$89.0 billion, about 92.5% of that quarter's revenue
Reference price	US$217.09 (close on October 19, 2026)
Risk 1	High valuation: the price is sensitive to changes in growth expectations
Risk 2	Depends on AI data center capital spending, which could slow down
Risk 3	Export restrictions to China: the company's next-quarter guidance excludes data center compute revenue from China

The financial data comes from NVIDIA's official release dated August 26, 2026. This is not investment advice.

Key Takeaways

Nvidia (NVDA) stock is a share of a GPU and AI chip maker listed on Nasdaq.
In the quarter ended July 26, 2026, Nvidia's revenue was US$96.2 billion (up 106% from a year earlier) and GAAP net income was US$59.7 billion (up 126%).
About 92.5% of revenue came from data centers (US$89.0 billion), so the stock's performance is closely tied to AI spending by large customers.
The P/E is about 27.4 using the price of US$217.09 (October 19, 2026) and GAAP earnings for the last 4 quarters. This number changes every day with the price.
From Indonesia, you can track its price movements through US stock tokens on Mobee. The token does not represent direct ownership of shares listed on US exchanges.
Main risks: high valuation, reliance on AI spending, and export restrictions. The price can rise and fall sharply.

What Is Nvidia (NVDA) Stock and What Business Is It In?

Nvidia is a technology company from the United States. Its main business is designing graphics processing units (GPUs) and chips for AI computing. GPUs were first used for gaming. Today they are also the backbone of the data centers that train and run AI models.

The latest figures from NVIDIA's official release (August 26, 2026):

Quarter ended July 26, 2026: revenue of US$96.2 billion, up 18% from the previous quarter and 106% from a year earlier.
Data center revenue of US$89.0 billion, up 117% from a year earlier.
GAAP net income of US$59.7 billion. The non-GAAP figure is US$54.0 billion, so a non-operating component also pushes GAAP earnings higher.
Gross margin of 75.0%.
Fiscal year 2026 (ended January 25, 2026): revenue of US$215.9 billion and GAAP net income of US$120.1 billion (released February 25, 2026).

For the next quarter, the company gave revenue guidance of US$108.0 billion (plus or minus 2%), assuming no data center compute revenue from China. This is management's guidance, not our forecast, and the actual result can differ.

Nvidia also pays a quarterly cash dividend of US$0.25 per share, raised from US$0.01 in May 2026. The company pays this dividend to shareholders on US exchanges.

How to Track Nvidia Stock from Indonesia: Shares, ETFs, or Tokens

There are several ways to follow Nvidia's movements. Each one has different costs, access, and risks.

Direct shares on US exchanges. You buy NVDA shares through a brokerage that offers access to US exchanges. The price per share is about US$217 (October 19, 2026), so the starting capital can be large unless fractional purchases are available.

ETFs that hold Nvidia. You get exposure to many stocks at once, including Nvidia. Its movements do not fully follow a single stock, and Nvidia's weight differs in each ETF.

US stock tokens on Mobee. This is a token whose price follows the price of a US stock and can be bought with rupiah. According to the product page, the token does not represent direct ownership of shares listed on US exchanges, and it can be traded 24/7. Learn how it works in How xStocks Work and US Stock Tokens vs Regular Stocks.

Derivatives such as options. These instruments are complex and high risk, and they are not covered in this article. If you do not yet understand how they work, do not start here.

How to Read Nvidia's Valuation: P/E, EPS, and Earnings

P/E (price to earnings) compares the share price with earnings per share (EPS) over the last 12 months. The higher the P/E, the more growth the market has already "priced in."

A worked example using official data and the reference price:

Component	Figure
Closing price on October 19, 2026	US$217.09
GAAP EPS for the last 4 quarters (fiscal 2026 Q3 US$1.30 + Q4 US$1.76 + fiscal 2027 Q1 US$2.39 + Q2 US$2.46)	US$7.91
P/E (price divided by EPS)	about 27.4

A few notes so you do not misread the numbers:

The P/E changes every day because the price changes. Recalculate with the latest price.
Nvidia's GAAP EPS for the latest quarter is higher than non-GAAP (US$2.46 versus US$2.22). This means there is a non-operating component. Compare both figures.
A low P/E does not mean cheap, and a high P/E does not mean expensive. Compare it with earnings growth and with similar companies.
High earnings growth today does not guarantee it will continue. Watch the company's guidance and the next quarterly report.

Learn about other ratios in the Guide to PER, PBV, ROE, and EPS.

Common Mistakes When Evaluating Nvidia Stock

Following the AI hype without looking at valuation. A stock with a high valuation can drop sharply even when the business grows, if market expectations are higher than the results.
Putting too much capital into one stock. Concentrating on one company raises portfolio risk.
Forgetting risks outside the financial reports. Export rules, competition, and customer spending cycles can move the price.
Ignoring costs. Transaction fees and taxes reduce your net result. Check Mobee's fees and trading rules before you trade.
Day trading without a plan. The price can move a lot in a single day, and emotional decisions often lead to losses.

Nvidia Stock Outlook 2026: What to Watch

No one can be sure where the price is heading. What you can do is know which news usually moves the price:

Quarterly financial reports. The next report is for Q3 of fiscal year 2027. Check the date on NVIDIA's investor calendar.
Revenue guidance. The Q3 guidance is US$108.0 billion (plus or minus 2%) with a gross margin of 74.0% (plus or minus 0.5 percentage points). Compare it later with the actual results.
AI data center capital spending. About 92.5% of revenue comes from data centers, so the spending plans of large customers matter a lot.
Export rules to China. The company's guidance assumes zero data center compute revenue from China. Rule changes could have an impact in either direction.
Interest rates and tech market sentiment. Stocks with high valuations tend to be sensitive when bond yields rise. Learn the basics in the Stock Investing Guide for Beginners.

This list is for monitoring, not a buy or sell signal.

Nvidia Stock Token Calculation Example (Illustration)

This example is only a simple calculation, not Nvidia's price or a forecast. Assume the price of a token whose price follows Nvidia is US$100 when you buy 1 token.

If the price rises 15%, the value becomes US$115. The US$15 difference is before fees and taxes.
If the price falls 10%, the value becomes US$90. The loss is US$10, also before fees.

The lesson from this example: results can be positive or negative, and costs always need to be counted. Use money you are ready to take the risk with.

Nvidia Stock Summary Table: Latest Figures

Aspect	Latest Figure	How to Read It	Risk Note
Valuation (P/E)	About 27.4 (price US$217.09 on Oct 19, 2026, 4-quarter GAAP EPS US$7.91)	Price divided by earnings per share over the last 12 months	Changes every day; GAAP EPS includes a non-operating component
Revenue	US$96.2 billion (quarter ended Jul 26, 2026), up 106% from a year earlier	A measure of the business's scale and growth	About 92.5% from data centers, so it depends on AI spending
Earnings per share	GAAP EPS US$2.46 and non-GAAP US$2.22 (same quarter)	Earnings allocated to each outstanding share	High growth may not continue
Company dividend	US$0.25 per share per quarter (up from US$0.01 in May 2026)	Cash payment by the company to shareholders on US exchanges	The token does not represent direct ownership; check the product terms on rights such as dividends

Source: NVIDIA financial results releases (February 25, May 20, and August 26, 2026), recalculated by the Mobee Academy team.

Tips for Beginners Tracking Nvidia Stock

Start with a small amount and first understand how US stock tokens work.
Read the quarterly financial reports, at least the summary of revenue, earnings, and guidance.
Spread your capital. Do not put everything into one stock or one theme.
Consider buying in stages (dollar-cost averaging) so you do not depend on a single purchase time. This reduces the risk of bad timing, but it does not guarantee results.
Write down why you are buying and when you will review it again.

Conclusion

Nvidia (NVDA) stock is in the spotlight because of its role in AI chips. Official data shows revenue of US$96.2 billion in the quarter ended July 26, 2026 and a sharp rise in earnings. On the other hand, the high valuation, reliance on AI data center spending, and export restrictions mean the price can fall quickly. Use official data, calculate the P/E with the latest price, and set your risk limit before you trade. This is not investment advice.

Track Nvidia Stock on Mobee

Mobee is operated by PT CTXG Indonesia Berkarya, which is licensed and supervised by OJK. With US stock tokens on Mobee, you can track a price that follows US tech stocks using rupiah. Learn about the product on the US Stock Tokens page, then install the Mobee app to get started. These tokens are high risk and do not represent direct ownership of shares on US exchanges.

FAQ

What is the difference between Nvidia stock and the Nvidia stock token on Mobee?

Nvidia stock is partial ownership of a company traded on US exchanges. The US stock token on Mobee is a digital asset whose price follows the stock price. According to the Mobee product page, the token does not represent direct ownership of shares listed on US exchanges, so check the product terms on rights such as voting or dividends.

What is the minimum capital to track Nvidia stock through Mobee?

The Mobee product page says US stock tokens can be started with a small amount. Check the latest minimum order limit in the app before you trade. One Nvidia share directly on a US exchange is about US$217 (October 19, 2026), so the starting capital is larger unless fractional purchases are available.

Is Nvidia stock suitable for long-term investing?

That depends on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. The business is growing fast, but the valuation is high and the price can fall sharply. Many long-term investors buy in stages and spread their capital across several assets. This is not investment advice.

How is tax handled for Nvidia stock tokens on Mobee?

Tax follows the rules that apply to digital financial asset transactions in Indonesia. The rates and how they are applied can change. Check Mobee's fees and trading rules page or consult a tax advisor.

Do I have to wait for Nvidia's financial report before buying?

There is no requirement, and there is no buy time that is always right. The price often moves a lot around financial reports, both up and down. If you are not comfortable with moves that big, reduce your position size or buy in stages.

Disclaimer

This article is for education and is not investment advice, or an invitation to buy or sell any asset. Prices and financial figures change, and the data in this article is taken from NVIDIA's official releases and closing prices on the dates mentioned. US stock tokens are high risk, their value can rise and fall, and you can lose some or all of your funds. Do your own research and consider your financial situation.