The 4-year Bitcoin cycle stems from the halving event, which reduces miners’ rewards every 210,000 blocks. This mechanism steadily decreases the issuance of new Bitcoin, creating scarcity that has historically triggered price increases. This pattern has been observed since the early days of Bitcoin and is still considered a crucial foundation for crypto market analysis.
Historical Patterns and Price Movements
Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s price has shown repeating patterns closely tied to its four-year cycle. After each halving, prices typically surge to new highs before entering correction and consolidation phases.
In 2013, 2017, and 2021, this phenomenon was evident, with major price rallies occurring roughly a year after each halving. These cycles have led many investors to believe that the Bitcoin market follows a natural rhythm that can be studied and anticipated.
Read more: Bitcoin’s Price Journey from Its Beginnings to All-Time High
Is It Relevant in 2025?
There are two major perspectives on whether the 4-year cycle remains relevant today.
Supporters of the Cycle’s Continuity
Some analysts remain optimistic that the cycle still holds. Recent on-chain data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin’s price movements continue to reflect historical patterns, particularly in the behavior of long-term holders during profit-taking euphoria.
Analysts like CRYPTOBIRB argue that halving is a mathematically programmed mechanism, reinforced by the correlation between the crypto market and traditional finance (tradfi), such as through ETFs.
Skeptics of the Cycle’s Relevance
On the other hand, many experts believe the market has structurally changed. Jason Williams highlights that large treasury accumulations—approaching one million BTC—have diluted the traditional halving effect.
Pierre Rochard further stresses that halving is now “immaterial” since 95% of Bitcoin supply is already in circulation, meaning price action is more heavily driven by institutional demand, ETPs, and market activities.
Others point out that the cycle has been disrupted by external factors such as Spot ETF approvals, which significantly impacted prices before and after the halving, alongside global monetary policies and regulatory shifts.
Implications for Investors
For investors, the 4-year Bitcoin cycle can still be used as a historical reference, but it should not be the sole guide. Key takeaways include:
- Use the cycle to understand phases of the market (bullish, bearish, and consolidation).
- Always combine it with macroeconomic and regulatory analysis.
- Pay attention to the role of institutions and global capital flows.
Strategies for Navigating the Cycle
Investors can craft practical strategies by blending cycle patterns with current market conditions:
- Long-term investors: accumulate during low-price phases and reduce exposure near peaks.
- Short-term traders: take advantage of volatility throughout the cycle’s progression.
- Risk management: use stop-losses, diversify portfolios, and avoid relying solely on halving predictions.
Read more: Is Bitcoin a Zero-Sum Game? Here’s the Full Explanation
Conclusion
The 4-year Bitcoin cycle remains relevant as a reference point, but its influence is no longer absolute. With the growing complexity of the market and the strong presence of institutions and global factors, historical patterns are now just one piece of the larger crypto puzzle. Investors who can combine cycle knowledge with macro analysis and market behavior will be better positioned to endure volatility and capture opportunities.
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