By September 2026, there was a compelling case to be made. Zcash rose 126.3% over the last 30 days. Hyperliquid climbed 40.6%. Solana gained 34.0%. All three outperformed Bitcoin’s 22.4% increase during the same period.
However, one metric suggests otherwise, and it was specifically designed to answer this very question. The Altcoin Season Index sits at 33 out of 100, which by definition means the market is still in Bitcoin Season, not alt season.
This article breaks down why these two readings differ, what is actually happening with these three assets, and what needs to occur before an alt season can truly be declared.
Key Takeaways
- The Altcoin Season Index is at 33 out of 100, remaining in Bitcoin Season territory. For an alt season to be declared, more than 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies must outperform Bitcoin over the last 90 days.
- It has been 353 days since the last recorded alt season, one of the longest gaps in recent years.
- The three assets in the spotlight outperformed Bitcoin over the last 30 days, with Zcash up 126.3%, Hyperliquid up 40.6%, and Solana up 34.0%.
- But over the last 7 days, all three have weakened, with Hyperliquid down 11.2%, Zcash down 5.5%, and Solana down 4.1%—all performing worse than or on par with Bitcoin’s 3.8% decline.
- The gains for these three were driven by their own specific narratives, rather than a broad rotation of capital from Bitcoin into altcoins, which characterizes a true alt season.
What Is the Altcoin Season Index and Why Does It Matter
The Altcoin Season Index measures how many of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days. Bitcoin itself and stablecoins are excluded from the calculation.
The threshold is clear. If more than 75% of the top 50 assets outperform Bitcoin, it is considered an alt season. If less than 25% do, it is a Bitcoin Season. Any number in between indicates the market is not in an extreme state.
The current reading of 33 means only about one-third of the top 50 assets have outperformed Bitcoin over the last three months. An equally important note: 353 days have passed since the last alt season, while the current Bitcoin Season has only been ongoing for 13 days.
This is what distinguishes "a few altcoins rallying" from an "alt season." The former can happen at any time and always does. The latter is a broad market condition where capital rotates out of Bitcoin and into the majority of altcoins simultaneously.
Comparing the Three Assets to Bitcoin
Observe the patterns emerging from this table. The 30-day column shows all three convincingly outperforming Bitcoin. The 7-day column paints a completely different picture: all three are weakening, with two of them declining more sharply than Bitcoin.
This is significant because it indicates that the momentum seen in the monthly figures was actually concentrated in the first half of the period, rather than being an ongoing trend. The major gains have already occurred, and the past week has been a phase of correction.
Zcash (ZEC): The Biggest Gainer, The Oldest Narrative
Zcash is up 126.3% over 30 days and 2,100.9% over the past year, figures that make it one of the best-performing large-cap assets annually. Its price is currently US$1,111.39 with a market capitalization of US$18.81 billion, though it remains 65.3% below its all-time high of US$3,191.93 recorded in October 2016.
What is driving it. According to Grayscale research, Zcash mining activity increased 2.5 times throughout 2026. The network hashrate reached 27.9 GSol/s on September 10, equivalent to 91% of its all-time high. Most notably, Zcash mining equipment currently generates about four times more revenue per megawatt-hour compared to Bitcoin miners.
The mechanism is cyclical. Rising prices increase mining profitability, which attracts more mining equipment to the network, reinforcing the narrative of network security. It is worth noting that the causal direction starts with price, not the other way around, so if the price reverses, the same cycle can spin in the opposite direction.
Category context. Zcash belongs to the privacy coin category, a group of assets designed to obscure transaction details. This category has a long history of fluctuations tied to cycles of interest in privacy issues and regulatory pressure. Its background is discussed more fully in what are privacy coins.
Hyperliquid (HYPE): A Scalable Token Burn Model
Hyperliquid is at US$78.12 with a market capitalization of US$17.38 billion, placing it in the top 10. It is up 40.6% over 30 days, but down 11.2% over the past week, the deepest weekly decline among the three assets discussed. HYPE is also the closest to its all-time high, only 12.8% below the peak of US$89.60 recorded on September 6, 2026, less than two weeks ago.
What is driving it. Unlike Zcash, whose narrative is based on mining, HYPE has a measurable supply reduction mechanism. Transaction fees from the platform are partially diverted to buy and burn HYPE tokens. In the last 24 hours, 9,730 HYPE were burned, worth approximately US$829,500. Cumulatively, 48.42 million tokens have been burned, equivalent to 4.84% of the maximum supply.
Why this is structurally interesting. This model links token value directly to platform usage volume. The busier the platform, the more fees are collected, and the more tokens are burned. This differs from assets whose prices move purely due to speculation, as there is a traceable relationship between activity and supply.
What to watch out for. That relationship works both ways. If platform volume drops, the burn rate drops as well. The 11.2% decline over the past week shows that the burn mechanism alone is not enough to hold the price when general market sentiment weakens.
Solana (SOL): The Most Fundamentally Scalable
Solana is at US$101.14 with a market capitalization of US$59.36 billion, the largest of the three. It is up 34.0% over 30 days and down 4.1% over the week, the shallowest weekly decline among these three assets. SOL remains 65.5% below its all-time high of US$293.31 recorded in January 2025.
Its network data is strengthening. Solana's on-chain fees reached US$91 million in the last week, up 20% from the previous week. DEX trading volume on its network averaged US$18 billion over two weeks, the highest level in the last two months.
Its ETF flows are consistent but slowing. SOL-based ETFs recorded positive net inflows for 10 consecutive weeks. However, the volume has shrunk sharply, from US$193 million throughout August to only about US$5 million in the first six days of September. The consistency of the direction is positive, but the volume indicates that institutions are becoming more cautious.
Why the data is the most verifiable. Of the three assets, Solana has the most complete combination of data: measurable network activity, recorded protocol revenue, and institutional flows through regulated products. This does not guarantee the price will rise, but it means the investment thesis can be tested with numbers, not just narratives.
Why This Isn't Alt Season Yet
If three major assets are outperforming Bitcoin in a month, why does the index still show Bitcoin Season? There are three reasons.
First, three assets do not make up the majority of the market. Alt season requires more than 75% of the top 50 assets to outperform Bitcoin. Three standout assets, even with gains as high as 126%, do not change a reading that measures the breadth of participation.
Second, the drivers are specific, not a broad rotation. Zcash is up due to mining economics. HYPE is up due to token burn mechanisms and platform growth. SOL is up due to network activity and ETF flows. All three have their own individual stories. A true alt season occurs when capital exits Bitcoin and flows into altcoins broadly, including into assets that have no specific story at all.
Third, the time windows differ. The index measures a 90-day period, while the gains of these three assets are concentrated around the last 30 days and have already turned weaker in the last week. Momentum that has not lasted long enough has not changed the three-month reading.
What Needs to Happen for Alt Season to Truly Begin
Participation must broaden. It is not three to five assets rising, but the majority of the top 50. This is what the index measures and this is the key differentiator.
Bitcoin needs to stabilize, not fall. Historically, the healthiest rotation into altcoins occurs when Bitcoin is moving sideways or rising slowly, not when it is falling. During sharp declines, altcoins typically fall further rather than rising.
Macro conditions need to stabilize. With the probability of a Fed rate hike at 85% to 90% and the FOMC decision on September 16, capital tends to seek the most liquid and established assets. A rotation into higher-risk assets generally requires a calmer macroeconomic backdrop.
Retail attention needs to return. Global search interest for crypto is in the 26 to 30 range out of 100, well below its peak. Historically, an alt season requires broad retail participation, and the data has yet to show signs of a recovery.
Risks to Understand
Past gains are not indicative of future performance. Zcash is up 126.3% over 30 days. That figure describes the past. Buying after such a surge means entering at a point far different from those who got in a month ago.
Volatility is significantly higher than Bitcoin's. HYPE fell 11.2% in a week while Bitcoin dropped 3.8%. This disparity works both ways and is an inherent characteristic of smaller-cap assets.
Narratives can shift faster than fundamentals. Zcash's mining economics depend on price. HYPE's token burn depends on platform volume. Solana's ETF inflows depend on institutional appetite. All three pillars can weaken faster than monthly data might suggest.
Position sizing matters more than asset selection. A more structured allocation framework is discussed in Beginner Crypto Portfolio, and for two-way market conditions like the current one, Spot Grid enables automated buy and sell orders within a price range you define yourself.
Conclusion
Three altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 30 days by a wide margin, and each has a justifiable reason: mining economics for Zcash, token burn mechanisms for Hyperliquid, and network activity along with ETF inflows for Solana.
However, the Altcoin Season Index at 33 suggests otherwise, and that index is not mistaken. What is happening is that a few assets with strong narratives are outperforming, rather than a broad capital rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins. Both look similar on the surface, but the implications for how to position yourself are very different.
Data from the past week reinforces that reading. All three assets actually weakened, two of them more significantly than Bitcoin, just as the market prepared for the FOMC decision and the CLARITY Act vote.
For now, reading these three as individual stories with their own unique drivers is more accurate, and more useful, than reading them as a sign that alt season has begun.
FAQ
Disclaimer. All information in this article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or financial advice. The mention of specific assets is not an invitation to buy or sell. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All price data is point-in-time as of the article's drafting on September 14, 2026, and is subject to rapid change. Crypto assets carry high volatility and the risk of total loss. Conduct your own research and align your decisions with your individual risk profile.
