daily-report-6-10-2025

In early October, a coordinated rumor spread about a major ASTER unlock that pushed the price below $1.60 and briefly touched $1.50. Figures such as CZ and analyst Jacob Crypto Bury dismissed the issue, calling it FUD and a buying opportunity during the dip.

Five days later, ASTER recovered to around $2, rising about 40% from its lowest point as risk-on momentum grew when BTC hit a new record above $125,000 and capital rotated into high-risk altcoins.

Why the $10 target is on the table

Jacob argues a multi-part bull case:

  • Listings: The possibility of Binance and Upbit Korea spot listings that could expand liquidity and discover higher prices.
  • Buybacks/revenue share: Protocol fees + potential buyback announcements may add a persistent bid to the market.
  • Sector tailwind: Perp DEX tokens have become a meta—with volumes, fees, and open interest pulling attention (and speculative flows) from other sectors.

In that framing, a $10 print is a stretch but not impossible in a euphoric continuation where: (1) listings land, (2) fees remain elevated, (3) buybacks materialize, and (4) BTC uptrend keeps risk appetite high.

Points of Caution

  • Data integrity debate: Some analytics voices flagged that ASTER’s reported perp volumes track centralized exchange flows too closely and asked for lower-level data (to exclude wash trading). Until transparency improves, headline volumes/fees may be discounted by skeptics.
  • Unlock overhang: Oct 17 brings a notable unlock. Bulls say a chunk is earmarked for rewards (tempering sell-pressure); bears see fresh supply as a ceiling.
  • Post-airdrop behavior: If farming activity fades after snapshots, usage metrics can retrace, reducing fee-based buyback firepower.
  • Narrative fragility: Perp DEX narratives are momentum-sensitive; if BTC chops or macro wobbles, flows can rotate away quickly.

Perp DEX Trend: What’s Driving ASTER’s Rally

  • Product breadth: Spot + perps under one roof, very high stated leverage, and multi-chain access attract speculative traders.
  • Fee economics: Elevated fees can feed buybacks/rewards, supporting token demand during growth phases.
  • Competition: Hyperliquid (HYPE) remains the benchmark on depth, but Aster has punched above its weight on volume/fees, fueling “flippening” chatter and short-cycle rotations.

Price Map

This is not financial advice—just scenario planning based on the flows and dates mentioned in the news you shared.

  • Bull case ($2.40 → $3.00+). Break and hold above $2.00–$2.33 on rising spot + perp OI; positive pre-listing speculation; credible buyback communication; BTC strength continues.
  • Base case ($1.60–$2.40 range). Market digests the unlock; fees/volumes normalize but remain healthy; BTC consolidates; narrative pauses between catalysts.
  • Bear case ($1.25–$1.50 retest). Unlock supply overwhelms, volumes cool post-airdrop, data-quality concerns rise, BTC wobbles → risk unwinds.

Key levels traders are watching: Support $1.60–$1.80 (hot zone); pivot $2.00; resistances $2.33 / $2.42; invalidation if $1.50 fails with momentum.

Catalyst Calendar

  • Oct 5–7: Airdrop/snapshot period chatter—watch whether volumes stay firm after.
  • Oct 17: Token unlock—track exchange balances, on-chain flows, and any reinvestment/reward announcements.
  • TBA: Spot listings (Binance / Upbit Korea) speculation; buyback/revenue-share details.

What to Monitor (Fast Signals)

  • Real usage: Perp OI, funding, spreads, depth, unique traders—not just headline “volume”.
  • Fees vs. buybacks: Are realized fees being routed to sustainable buy pressure?
  • Supply unlock handling: Vesting, lockups, or direct reward recycling?
  • Cross-venue liquidity: Listings and market-maker presence matter for slippage and price discovery.
  • Macro: BTC trend + USD liquidity regime (Uptober can help, but reversals bite).

Conclusion

Jacob Crypto Bury’s early dip-buy call aged well into a fast +40% rebound, and his $10 beacon captures the best-case of stacked catalysts during a risk-on tape.

But ASTER remains a high-volatility, event-driven trade where data transparency, unlock dynamics, and catalyst execution will decide whether momentum compounds—or fades.

Disclaimer
This material is for general informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendations, or an invitation to buy or sell cryptocurrencies, digital assets, securities, derivatives, or any other form of investment. Mobee is not obligated to update this report based on new information or events occurring after its publication. Any suggestions or statements contained herein may not be suitable for all users.