In early October, a coordinated rumor spread about a major ASTER unlock that pushed the price below $1.60 and briefly touched $1.50. Figures such as CZ and analyst Jacob Crypto Bury dismissed the issue, calling it FUD and a buying opportunity during the dip.
Five days later, ASTER recovered to around $2, rising about 40% from its lowest point as risk-on momentum grew when BTC hit a new record above $125,000 and capital rotated into high-risk altcoins.
Why the $10 target is on the table
Jacob argues a multi-part bull case:
- Listings: The possibility of Binance and Upbit Korea spot listings that could expand liquidity and discover higher prices.
- Buybacks/revenue share: Protocol fees + potential buyback announcements may add a persistent bid to the market.
- Sector tailwind: Perp DEX tokens have become a meta—with volumes, fees, and open interest pulling attention (and speculative flows) from other sectors.
In that framing, a $10 print is a stretch but not impossible in a euphoric continuation where: (1) listings land, (2) fees remain elevated, (3) buybacks materialize, and (4) BTC uptrend keeps risk appetite high.
Points of Caution
- Data integrity debate: Some analytics voices flagged that ASTER’s reported perp volumes track centralized exchange flows too closely and asked for lower-level data (to exclude wash trading). Until transparency improves, headline volumes/fees may be discounted by skeptics.
- Unlock overhang: Oct 17 brings a notable unlock. Bulls say a chunk is earmarked for rewards (tempering sell-pressure); bears see fresh supply as a ceiling.
- Post-airdrop behavior: If farming activity fades after snapshots, usage metrics can retrace, reducing fee-based buyback firepower.
- Narrative fragility: Perp DEX narratives are momentum-sensitive; if BTC chops or macro wobbles, flows can rotate away quickly.
Perp DEX Trend: What’s Driving ASTER’s Rally
- Product breadth: Spot + perps under one roof, very high stated leverage, and multi-chain access attract speculative traders.
- Fee economics: Elevated fees can feed buybacks/rewards, supporting token demand during growth phases.
- Competition: Hyperliquid (HYPE) remains the benchmark on depth, but Aster has punched above its weight on volume/fees, fueling “flippening” chatter and short-cycle rotations.
Price Map
This is not financial advice—just scenario planning based on the flows and dates mentioned in the news you shared.
- Bull case ($2.40 → $3.00+). Break and hold above $2.00–$2.33 on rising spot + perp OI; positive pre-listing speculation; credible buyback communication; BTC strength continues.
- Base case ($1.60–$2.40 range). Market digests the unlock; fees/volumes normalize but remain healthy; BTC consolidates; narrative pauses between catalysts.
- Bear case ($1.25–$1.50 retest). Unlock supply overwhelms, volumes cool post-airdrop, data-quality concerns rise, BTC wobbles → risk unwinds.
Key levels traders are watching: Support $1.60–$1.80 (hot zone); pivot $2.00; resistances $2.33 / $2.42; invalidation if $1.50 fails with momentum.
Catalyst Calendar
- Oct 5–7: Airdrop/snapshot period chatter—watch whether volumes stay firm after.
- Oct 17: Token unlock—track exchange balances, on-chain flows, and any reinvestment/reward announcements.
- TBA: Spot listings (Binance / Upbit Korea) speculation; buyback/revenue-share details.
What to Monitor (Fast Signals)
- Real usage: Perp OI, funding, spreads, depth, unique traders—not just headline “volume”.
- Fees vs. buybacks: Are realized fees being routed to sustainable buy pressure?
- Supply unlock handling: Vesting, lockups, or direct reward recycling?
- Cross-venue liquidity: Listings and market-maker presence matter for slippage and price discovery.
- Macro: BTC trend + USD liquidity regime (Uptober can help, but reversals bite).
Conclusion
Jacob Crypto Bury’s early dip-buy call aged well into a fast +40% rebound, and his $10 beacon captures the best-case of stacked catalysts during a risk-on tape.
But ASTER remains a high-volatility, event-driven trade where data transparency, unlock dynamics, and catalyst execution will decide whether momentum compounds—or fades.
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