Bitcoin (BTC) has declined further to the $81,500 range, breaking a critical support level as its correlation with technology stocks continues to tighten. This drop coincided with a sell-off in the Nasdaq index driven by the AI sector, where investors have begun to penalize companies engaging in aggressive capital spending without clear profitability. While Bitcoin lost value alongside equities, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver surged, with silver posting notable gains amid heightened Middle East tensions.
At the same time, the crypto market is facing the first monthly options expiry of 2026 today, January 30. Although early reports had projected low volatility, live market data from the charts shows that the calm period ended abruptly with a sharp spike in downside volatility.
Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum & Support Breakdown
Based on the BTC/USDT 1-Hour and Daily Charts
1. Price Action & Market Structure
The “wait-and-see” consolidation phase has ended with a downside price breakdown.
Support Failure: Bitcoin failed to hold the $83,000–$84,000 consolidation zone, which previously acted as a price floor. This area has now turned into the nearest resistance.
The daily chart shows a clear rejection from the recent local high around ~$96,000, forming a lower high. Today’s decline confirms the continuation of the broader downtrend that began from the ~$100K peak.
Price is currently testing the $81,400 level. If this level fails to hold, the next major psychological support lies at $80,000. A loss of $80K could open the door to a deeper decline toward support structures in the mid-$70K region.
2. Momentum Analysis (Squeeze Momentum Indicator)
The “LazyBear” Squeeze Momentum indicator on both timeframes signals intensifying bearish pressure:
- Hourly Chart (Short Term): The histogram shows deepening and expanding red bars (current value: -2.927), indicating an active downside squeeze release. The length of the bars suggests accelerating selling pressure with no signs of exhaustion so far.
- Daily Chart (Macro Trend): After a brief period of green (bullish) momentum during the rebound to $96K, the histogram has turned red again (current value: -6.360). This bearish reversal on the daily timeframe is significant, as it aligns macro momentum with short-term selling pressure, increasing the probability of further downside.
Technical indicators suggest the market is in a “falling knife” scenario. Bulls need to quickly reclaim the $84,000 level to invalidate this bearish breakdown, while bears remain firmly in control with a downside target near $80,000.
SEC Opens the Door for On-Chain Equities
In a significant step toward financial modernization, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued a statement clarifying the rules for tokenized securities. The agency emphasized that tokenized securities are fully subject to federal securities laws, regardless of whether they are recorded on a blockchain.
This guidance effectively gives the green light to regulated on-chain equities, provided they are registered with the Commission or qualify for a valid exemption. Market leaders such as Coinbase welcomed the move as a preview of a future where tokenized equities can be traded on-chain under a clear regulatory framework.
Institutional Moves: Talos Expansion & 21Shares
Institutional infrastructure continues to deepen through major funding rounds and new product launches in Europe:
- Talos Funding Extension: Institutional trading platform Talos secured a $45 million extension to its Series B round, bringing total Series B funding to $150 million and valuing the company at approximately $1.5 billion. New strategic backers include Robinhood, Sony Innovation Fund, and IMC.
- 21Shares Launches Jito Staked SOL ETP: 21Shares has launched the 21Shares Jito Staked SOL ETP (JSOL) on Euronext Paris and Amsterdam. This is Europe’s first ETP to offer “dual rewards,” allowing investors to earn standard staking yield alongside MEV (Maximal Extractable Value) rewards from the Jito network.
Ecosystem Updates: The DAO Returns & XRP Accumulation
The DAO, Chapter Two: Nearly a decade after the historic hack that split Ethereum, The DAO is returning—not as a venture fund, but as a $220 million security endowment. Around 75,000 unclaimed ETH from the original contract will be repurposed to fund security research, audits, and defenses for Ethereum’s infrastructure.
XRP Accumulation: Despite sluggish price action, on-chain data reveals growth in “millionaire” XRP wallets. Whales holding at least 1 million XRP have resumed accumulation, a divergence from price action that often signals long-term confidence.
Silver Commodities: A Silver Short Squeeze
While the crypto market corrects, the commodities market is flashing warning signals. COMEX silver inventories are being rapidly depleted, triggering a potential short squeeze scenario. Registered stocks have fallen to their lowest level in a decade as industrial demand from AI manufacturing and solar energy pulls physical metal out of vaults, creating an imbalance between futures contracts and available physical supply.
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