The chips inside the iPhone, Nvidia's AI servers, and countless other devices are mostly born in one place: the fabs of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC. It is no surprise that TSMC stock is searched for by investors everywhere, including in Indonesia.

This article summarizes the Mobee Research report dated 1 October 2026, which initiates coverage of TSMC with a HOLD rating and a 12-month price target of US$509 per ADS. You will see what the business does, why its earnings are surging, why we think the price already looks full, and which risks to watch.

Key Points

• Mobee Research rates TSMC stock (TSM) HOLD with a target of US$509 per ADS, about 4.8% above the 5 October 2026 closing price of US$485.80.
• TSMC holds about 72.5% of the revenue of the ten largest foundries in the second quarter of 2026, and AI demand is lifting revenue about 40% this year.
• The HOLD rating is not because the business is weak. The discounted cash flow (DCF) model gives a fair value below the market price, mainly because of the discount rate assumption.
• Gross margin is expected to peak this year and then ease, while capital expenditure is up about 52%.
• The main risks are valuation, customer concentration, Taiwan Strait geopolitics, and the Taiwan dollar exchange rate.

Rating and Price Target at a Glance

One ADS (American Depositary Share) represents five TSMC common shares.

What Is TSMC?

TSMC was founded in 1987 in Hsinchu, Taiwan. Its business model is called a pure-play foundry: it only manufactures chips designed by other companies and does not compete with its own customers. Its customers include major chip designers such as Nvidia and Apple.

In 2025, TSMC served 534 customers and shipped about 15 million 12-inch equivalent wafers. Revenue comes from the number of wafers shipped multiplied by the price per wafer at each technology level. The most advanced technology, 7 nanometers and below, made up 77% of wafer revenue in the second quarter of 2026.

TSMC holds nearly three quarters of foundry revenue

Q2 2026 revenue share among the ten largest foundries, %.

Source: TrendForce, 9 September 2026. *Remainder to 100%, calculated by Mobee.

This table compares operating scale, not valuation multiples. Competitors' valuation multiples are left out on purpose because the available figures come from different providers, carry different dates, and some are more than six months old, so putting them side by side would suggest a precision the data does not support.

Where TSMC's Growth Comes From

1. AI demand dominates the revenue mix

The High-Performance Computing (HPC) platform rose from 58% of revenue in 2025 to 66% in the second quarter of 2026. Smartphones fell from 29% to 22%. Management has raised its 2026 growth guidance twice, from about 30% to slightly above 40% in US dollars.

AI is shifting the revenue mix: HPC up, smartphones down

Platform share of TSMC revenue, %. Other platforms not shown.

Source: Mobee Research report based on TSMC data.

2. Price per wafer is rising faster than wafer volume

Between 2023 and 2025, wafer shipments rose 25% while wafer revenue rose 74%. That means the value TSMC earns from each unit of production has increased sharply, driven by the move to 3 and 2 nanometer technology and advanced packaging services.

Price per wafer is rising faster than wafer volume

Cumulative change 2023 to 2025, %.

Source: Mobee Research report based on TSMC data.

3. Capacity is the constraint, not demand

Management says supply is very tight, and advanced packaging capacity limits customer growth. A new fab takes two to three years to build, plus one to two more years to ramp up. 2026 capital expenditure was raised to US$60 to 64 billion, from US$40.9 billion in 2025.

4. Margins are expected to peak this year

Management guides to margin dilution of 3 to 4 points in the second half of 2026 as 2 nanometer production ramps up. Overseas fabs add another 2 to 4 points of dilution. The company's long-term target is a gross margin of 56% or higher, well below the 67.7% reached in the second quarter of 2026.

TSMC Financials 2024 to 2028

The first two years are actuals from audited financial statements. 2026 follows company guidance, while 2027 and 2028 are Mobee Research estimates, not company guidance. EBITDA margin and free cash flow for 2024 are not available.

TSMC revenue keeps rising, but growth slows after 2026

Net revenue, US$ billion. The small figure under each year is year-on-year growth.

Source: TSMC financial statements (2024 and 2025) and Mobee Research model (2026 to 2028). Growth calculated from the table figures.

Earnings per ADS projected to more than triple in four years

Diluted EPS per ADS, US$. One ADS equals five TSMC common shares.

Source: TSMC financial statements and Mobee Research model. Growth calculated from the table figures.

Margins expected to peak in 2026, then ease gradually

Gross margin and EBITDA margin, % of revenue. 2024 EBITDA data not available.

Source: Mobee Research model. Dashed line: management long-term gross margin target of 56% or higher.

In Mobee's estimates, 2026 revenue grows about 40%, then slows to about 28% in 2027 and about 20% in 2028. Gross margin reaches 66.2% in 2026 and then eases gradually, while staying above management's long-term target.

Market Consensus vs the Mobee Model

Consensus comes from an aggregate data provider, not from individual brokerages' research. Note that Mobee's earnings forecast is almost the same as consensus. The difference in rating comes from how the price is judged, not from a different view on earnings.

Why HOLD? Valuation and Scenarios

Mobee Research models three scenarios with probability weights.

Bear repeats the 2022 to 2023 downturn that actually happened: wafer shipments fell 21.3% and US dollar revenue fell 8.7%. Base follows company guidance for 2026. Bull assumes the AI spending cycle lasts longer. The weights are Mobee Research's judgment, not the output of a calculation. TSMC's own CEO said in January 2026 that he did not know whether these strong conditions would last another three to five years.

Fair value per ADS: DCF far below the price, P/E method widely spread

Both methods use the same earnings forecast. The gap is purely about the discount rate.

Source: Mobee Research model. Dashed lines: 5 October 2026 closing price and 12-month target.

The two methods use the same earnings forecast, so the gap is purely about the discount rate. The discount rate is the minimum return an investor requires. The higher it is, the less future cash flow is worth today. At a discount rate of 7.92%, the DCF method agrees with the market price. Mobee's calculation gives 11.65%, because the 10-year US Treasury yield in the model is 5.01%.

In other words, today's price only makes sense if bond yields fall or growth exceeds the assumptions. That is why the rating is HOLD, not SELL.

TSM Technical Analysis (Weekly)

On the weekly timeframe, TSM keeps its bullish trend. The price of US$485.80 is far above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at US$376.68, which signals a strong medium-term trend. The higher-high and higher-low pattern is intact, with the price approaching the US$487 to 500 resistance area.

Price is above the EMA 50 and nearing the resistance zone

Key TSM levels on the weekly timeframe, US$ per ADS.

Source: Mobee Research technical analysis, price as of 5 October 2026.

Stochastic RSI is in overbought territory (99.65 and 77.43), so the price may consolidate before forming the next higher high. Nearest support is at US$400 to 450, with trend support at the EMA 50 (US$376.68). As long as the price holds above those levels, TSM's bullish structure stays intact.

Catalysts That Could Lift the Price

• Lower US Treasury yields. This is the single biggest driver in Mobee's valuation. Each 1 percentage point decline raises the base value by about US$40 per ADS.
• Third-quarter 2026 results on 15 October. If they beat guidance (revenue of US$44.6 to 45.8 billion, gross margin of 65 to 67%) and come with 2027 guidance above Mobee's forecast, the upside opens up.
• 2 nanometer wafer pricing and advanced packaging that keep gross margin above 64% for longer than assumed.
• Share buybacks. Cash is piling up fast. If it is returned through buybacks rather than special dividends, value per share could be higher than in the model.

Risks to Watch

• An AI spending slowdown. TSMC's capital expenditure is up about 52% this year, so a demand drop would meet depreciation that has already risen.
• Customer concentration. The ten largest customers made up 78% of 2025 revenue, and the largest alone accounted for 19%.
• Taiwan Strait geopolitics. Most of the most advanced capacity is in Taiwan. Mobee Research prices this risk at a 3% annual probability, which lowers the weighted value by about 2.4%.
• Exchange rate. Each 1% appreciation of the Taiwan dollar lowers gross margin by about 0.4 points, according to TSMC's CFO.
• Valuation. A price that is already high makes the stock sensitive to news that comes in slightly below expectations.

TSMC Dividend

TSMC pays a quarterly cash dividend. For the second quarter of 2026, the dividend is NT$7.00 per common share, or about US$1.08 per ADS. The ADR ex-dividend date is 10 December 2026, with payment scheduled for 7 January 2027. Schedules can change, so check TSMC's investor relations page.

How to Access TSMC Stock from Indonesia

TSMC can be accessed through the US market (TSM) or the Taiwan market (2330) via a broker that offers that access. Another option is a tokenized stock, a digital asset whose price follows the underlying share.

On Mobee, tokenized US stocks and ETFs can be bought with rupiah, starting from around US$1 and traded 24 hours a day. At the time of writing, TSMC is not listed on that page, but the asset list keeps growing and you can check which other semiconductor tokens are available. Make sure you understand that a tokenized stock is different from a regular share, including voting rights and dividends. The explanation is in tokenized US stocks vs regular stocks and how tokenized stocks work.

If you are new to analyzing US stocks, start with fundamental analysis of US stocks and avoid putting all your funds into one name. The principle is covered in diversification strategy for US stocks. Mobee is operated by PT CTXG Indonesia Berkarya, which is licensed and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is TSMC and what does it stand for?

TSMC stands for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, founded in 1987 in Hsinchu, Taiwan. It is the world's largest contract chipmaker (foundry). It only manufactures chips designed by other companies, such as Nvidia and Apple, and never competes with its own customers.

Who owns TSMC?

TSMC is a public company, so ownership is spread out. According to TSMC's 2025 annual report, with data as of 17 December 2025, the largest holder is the ADR account held through Citibank as depositary (20.49%), followed by Taiwan's National Development Fund (6.38%). The ADR account represents many investors, not a single owner.

What is TSMC's stock ticker and where does it trade?

In the United States, TSMC trades as an American Depositary Share (ADS) under the ticker TSM on the NYSE. One ADS represents five TSMC common shares. The common shares are listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange under 2330. Prices in the two markets differ because of different units, currencies, and the ADS ratio.

What is TSMC's stock price today?

At the close on 5 October 2026, TSM was US$485.80 per ADS. Prices move every day, so treat that figure as a reference point for the analysis, not the latest quote. Check a current quote before making any decision.

Is TSMC stock a good buy?

Mobee Research rates it HOLD with a 12-month price target of US$509 per ADS. The reasoning is that TSMC's business is strong, but the current price already reflects high growth expectations. The aggregator consensus differs: Strong Buy from 21 analysts with an average target of US$552.26. This is not personal advice. Any decision should fit your own goals and risk tolerance.

How can I buy TSMC stock from Indonesia?

There are two main routes: through a broker that offers access to the US market (buying TSM) or the Taiwan market (2330). Another option is a tokenized stock whose price follows the underlying share. At the time of writing, TSMC is not listed on the Mobee Stocks page, so check the latest asset list in the app. Learn how tokens differ from regular shares in this article.

When does TSMC report third-quarter 2026 earnings?

TSMC is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on 15 October 2026. The company's guidance for the quarter is revenue of US$44.6 to 45.8 billion and a gross margin of 65 to 67 percent.

Does TSMC pay a dividend?

Yes. For the second quarter of 2026, TSMC set a dividend of NT$7.00 per common share, or about US$1.08 per ADS. The ex-dividend date for ADRs is 10 December 2026, with payment scheduled for 7 January 2027.

Who are TSMC's competitors?

In the second quarter of 2026, the largest competitors according to TrendForce were Samsung Foundry (5.9% share), SMIC (5.4%), and UMC (3.9%), among the ten largest foundries. TSMC itself holds 72.5%.

What happens to TSMC if there is a conflict over Taiwan?

Most of TSMC's most advanced capacity is in Taiwan, so a conflict would be a major risk to its operations and share price. Mobee Research prices this risk at a 3 percent annual probability, which lowers the weighted value by about 2.4 percent. That figure is an assumption, not a forecast.

What is the difference between TSMC and ASML?

TSMC makes chips for its customers. ASML makes the lithography machines that chip factories use to print circuit patterns. Both sit in the same semiconductor supply chain, but their businesses, customers, and risks are different.

Conclusion

Mobee Research maintains its HOLD rating with a 12-month price target of US$509 per ADS. TSMC has a strong market position, high AI demand, and a solid revenue outlook. But the current valuation already reflects high growth expectations, while the DCF model gives a fair value below the market price.

The main risk comes from valuation, not from the quality of the business. Upside depends on a lower discount rate or growth above our assumptions. Watch the third-quarter report on 15 October 2026 as the next test.

Disclaimer

This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice or an invitation to buy or sell any security. The rating and price target are Mobee Research's view as of the report date and may change. Forecasts are not a guarantee of results. Stocks, tokenized stocks, and crypto assets are high-risk and prices can fall. Do your own research and only use funds whose risk you can bear. Mobee is operated by PT CTXG Indonesia Berkarya, licensed and supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK).